Industry Services
Bedryfsdienste
30
31
Market overview for grain and oilseeds
Markoorsig vir graan en oliesade
Markoorsig
Die JSEOorkoepelendeAandele-indeks (
Grafiek 1
opbladsy 33)
was 9% hoër in Oktober 2014 as ‘n jaar gelede, terwyl die
goudprys en die prys van Brent-ruolie onderskeidelik met 4% en
20% gedaal het.
In Januarie 2014 het die VSA se Federale Reserwebank begin om
sy kwantitatiewe verligtingsbydraes tot die Amerikaanse ekono-
mie te verminder. Dit het tot ‘n sterk dollar gelei vergeleke met die
euro. Die dollar het verder steun gekry van verwagte rentekoers-
verhogings vroeg in 2015. Die sterker dollar en toename in wêreld-
voorrade het landboukommoditeitspryse negatief beïnvloed.
Die swak rand het plaaslike landboukommoditeitspryse onder-
steun, maar groot oordragvoorrade het die nuwe seisoen se
gewaspryse negatief geraak. Sedert Oktober 2013 het die rand
met 11% teen die dollar verswak (
Grafiek 2
op bladsy 33) weens
die negatiewe betalingsbalans, arbeidsonrus, lae ekonomiese
groei, onsekerheid oor binnelandse beleid, en die wêreldwye
beleidsomgewing.
Somergraan
‘n Herstel in sorghumproduksie het daartoe gelei dat sorghum in
Oktober teen R2 480 per ton verhandel het – 28% laer as ‘n jaar
gelede. Sorghumpryse is negatief geraak deur die rekordmielie-
opbrengste. Geen invoere word in die vooruitsig gestel nie.
’n Wêreldsorghumoes van 63,3 miljoen ton word voorspel vir
2014/2015.
Witmielies het teen R1 874 en geelmielies het teen R1 885 per ton
verhandel, onderskeidelik 20% en 12% laer as ‘n jaar gelede.
In Oktober 2014 was die nuwe gewas-termynkontrakpryse vir
lewering in Julie 2015 onderskeidelik 7% en 4% laer vir witmielies
en geelmielies as ‘n jaar gelede.
In Oktober 2014 is die totale Suid-Afrikaanse oordragvoorrade-
syfer vir wit- en geelmielies vir die 2014/2015-bemarkingsjaar op
2 117 000 ton bereken, vergeleke met 589 000 ton in die vorige
bemarkingsjaar. Die herstel in Suid-Afrikaanse produksie, tesame
met 'n onvoldoende uitvoervraag na witmielies, het tot laer
witmieliepryse gelei. Geelmielie-uitvoere het met dié van die
vorige bemarkingsjaar ooreengestem. Die nuwe geelmielieoes
het prysdruk ervaar weens ‘n herstel in die VSA se gewas-
voorrade vir die nuwe seisoen (
Grafiek 3
op bladsy 33) én die
herstel van plaaslike mielieproduksie.
Oliesade
Die plaaslike pryse vir oliesade is deur ‘n groter vraag van
uitgebreide perskapasiteit ondersteun. Skattings toon dat Suid-
Afrika se sojabooninvoere 100 659 ton kan oorskry.
In Oktober 2014 het sojabone teen R5 110/ton verhandel,
10% laer as ‘n jaar gelede. Plaaslike produksie het van
784 500 ton in die 2013/2014-bemarkingsjaar tot 944 340 ton in
die 2014/2015-bemarkingsjaar toegeneem. Sojaboon-invoere
kan in 2014/2015 op 100 700 ton stabiliseer.
Sonneblomsaad het in Oktober 2014 teen ongeveer R4 585/ton
verhandel, 14% laer as ‘n jaar gelede (
Grafiek 4
op bladsy 33).
Plaaslike produksie het van 557 000 ton in 2013/2014 tot
853 325 ton in 2014/2015 toegeneem.
Die oordragvoorradesyfer vir sonneblomsaad kan aan die einde
van 2014/2015 118 300 ton bereik. Plaaslike sonneblomproduksie
het toegeneemen na verwagting sal die geprojekteerde verbruik
ook toeneem. In 2013 is ongeveer 123 503 ton sonneblom-
olie ingevoer.
Market overview
The JSE Overall Share Index (
Graph 1
on page 33) was 9% higher
in October 2014 than a year before, while the gold price and
Brent crude oil price decreased by 4% and 20% respectively.
In January 2014 the USA Federal Reserve started reducing its
quantitative easing contributions to the American economy.
This led to a strong dollar compared to the euro. The dollar
gained further support due to expected interest rate hikes in
early 2015. The stronger dollar and increases in world supplies
had a negative impact on agricultural commodity prices.
The weak rand supported local agricultural commodity prices,
but new season crop prices were negatively influenced by
large carry-out supplies. The rand depreciated by 11% against
the dollar since October 2013 (
Graph 2
on page 33) due to the
negative balance of payments, labour unrest, low economic
growth, domestic policy uncertainty and the global policy
environment.
Summer grain
A recovery in sorghum production led to sorghum trading at
R2 480 per ton in October, which was 28% lower than a year
ago. Sorghum prices were affected negatively by record
maize yields. No imports are predicted. A global sorghum
crop of 63,3 million tons is predicted for 2014/2015.
White maize traded at R1 874 per ton and yellow maize at
R1 885 per ton – 20% and 12% lower respectively than a year
ago. In October 2014 the new crop futures prices for delivery
in July 2015 were 7% and 4% lower for white maize and yellow
maize respectively compared to a year ago.
In October 2014 the total South African carry-out figure for
white and yellow maize for the 2014/2015 marketing year
was calculated at 2 117 000 tons, compared to 589 000 tons
in the previous marketing year. The recovery in South African
production, coupled with insufficient export demand for white
maize, resulted in lower whitemaize prices. Yellowmaize exports
compared in size to those of the previous marketing year. New-
crop yellow maize prices experienced price pressure due to
a recovery in USA’s new season crop supplies (
Graph 3
on
page 33) and the recovery in local maize production.
Oilseeds
The local prices for oilseeds were supported by an increased
demand for crushing capacity. Estimates show that South
Africa’s soybean imports may exceed 100 659 tons.
In October 2014 soybeans traded at R5 110/ton, which was 10%
lower than a year ago. Domestic production increased from
784 500 tons in the 2013/2014 marketing year to 944 340 tons in
the 2014/2015 marketing year. Soybean imports may stabilise
at 100 700 tons in 2014/2015.
Sunflower seeds traded at around R4 585/ton in October 2014,
which was 14% lower than a year ago (
Graph 4
on page 33).
Domestic production increased from 557 000 tons in 2013/2014
to 853 325 tons in 2014/2015.
The carry-out figure for sunflower seeds may reach
118 300 tons at the end of 2014/2015. The domestic sunflower
production increased and the projected consumption is
expected to increase as well. Approximately 123 503 tons of
sunflower oil were imported in 2013.
Graph 9: Annual harvester sales versus average annual maize price
Grafiek 9: Jaarlikse stroperverkope teenoor gemiddelde jaarlikse mielieprys
Source: AGFACTS (2014) and Grain SA (2014)/
Bron: AGFACTS (2014) en Graan SA (2014)
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2 750
2 500
2 250
2 000
1 750
1 500
1 250
1 000
750
500
250
0
R/ton
Harvestor sales/
Stroperverkope
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Annual average
maize price
Jaarlikse gemiddelde
mielieprys
Annual harvestor sales
Jaarlikse
stroperverkope
PRYSE
Die pryse van landboumasjinerie het gemiddeld met 13,1%
gestyg vanaf September 2013 tot September 2014, en met 11,9%
van Oktober 2013 tot Oktober 2014. Die verswakking van die
rand in 2013 en vroeg in 2014 het ‘n negatiewe effek op jaar-tot-
jaarprysveranderings gehad (
Tabel 7
op bladsy 29).
Daar word verwag dat die mielieprysindeks in die komende
seisoen sal verswak vergeleke met die prysindeks van trekkers,
wat geweldig gestyg het (
Grafiek 7
op bladsy 29).
MIELIEPRYS TEENOOR TREKKER- EN STROPERVERKOPE
Dit lyk of daar ‘n sterk korrelasie is tussen trekkerverkope en die
mielieprys (
Grafiek 8
op bladsy 29). Weens die groot mielie-oes
en lae mieliepryse word laer trekkerverkope vir 2014 verwag.
Die jaarlikse stroperverkope toon ook ‘n positiewe verwantskap
met die gemiddelde jaarlikse mielieprys (
Grafiek 9
).
Markoorsig vir graan en oliesade
D
ie verslagtydperk is gekenmerk deur belangrike doel-
witte wat bereik is, steun aan belanghebbendes in
die waardeketting, en nuwe uitdagings wat deur die
beleids-, regulatoriese en bedryfsomgewing gestel is.
Markinligting
Toegang tot die publiek
Toegang tot tydige, betroubare en akkurate inligting vir al die
belanghebbendes van die voorsieningsketting is ‘n voorvereiste
vir die doeltreffende funksionering van die vrye mark. Landbou-
rolspelers slaan Graan SA se markinligting hoog aan vir die
toeganklikheid, objektiwiteit en akkuraatheid daarvan.
Daaglikse datavaslegging, ontleding
en inligting
Die inligting oor graan en oliesade is verbeter deur ‘n model
wat die persmarge vir sojabone aflei. Bykomende prysdata oor
kommoditeitsverhandeling in China en Japan is bekend gestel.
Ontleding van die plaaslike mark is verbeter. Ons verslae word
aan volgelinge getwiet (
Twitter@GrainSA
), op die webtuiste
geplaas én per e-pos aan lede gestuur.
PRICES
The prices for agricultural machinery have increased on average
by 13,1% from September 2013 to September 2014 and by 11,9%
from October 2013 to October 2014. The weakening in the value
of the rand during 2013 and early 2014 had an adverse effect on
year-on-year price changes (
Table 7
on page 29).
The maize price index is expected to decrease in the coming
season compared to the price index of tractors, which
increased immensely (
Graph 7
on page 29).
MAIZE PRICE VERSUS TRACTOR AND HARVESTER SALES
There seems to be a strong correlation between tractor sales
and the maize price (
Graph 8
on page 29). Because of the
large maize crop and low maize price lower tractor sales are
expected for 2014.
The annual harvester sales also show a positive relationship to
the average annual maize price (
Graph 9
).
Market overview for grain
and oilseeds
T
he reporting period was characterised by important
objectives achieved, support to grateful stakeholders in the
value chain and new challenges introduced by the policy,
regulatory and industry environment.
Market information
Access to the public
Access to timely, reliable and accurate information for all the
stakeholders involved in the supply chain is a prerequisite for
the efficient functioning of the free market. Agricultural role-
players have a high regard for Grain SA’s market information
with respect to its accessibility, objectivity and accuracy.
Daily data capturing, analysis and information
The informationongrainandoilseedswas improvedby introducing
a model that derives the crush margin for soybeans. Additional
price data on commodities trading in China and Japan was
introduced. The analysis of the local market was improved. Our
reports are tweeted to followers (
Twitter@GrainSA
), posted on our
website daily and sent to members via email.
Insetnavorsing (vervolg)
Input research (continued)
