11
10
Corporate social responsibility report
Sosiale maatskaplike
verantwoordelikheidsverslag
G
rain SA’s strategic goals are not only aimed
towards establishing profitable and sustainable
grain production for commercial and developing
producers, but also towards the fulfilment of our social
responsibility.
The organisation’s production and income cost figures, as well
as market information, are used by numerous role-players in
the grain value chain to make informed decisions in their own
businesses, whether it is to increase their investments in the
grain industry or to give support to producers.
These role-players include:
●
Researchers and research institutions
It is pivotal for researchers to include economic analyses
in their studies. Grain SA is thus frequently contacted by
different researchers and research institutions, specifically
universities, for grain data.
●
Input suppliers
Various input suppliers, such as seed, fertiliser or
agrochemical companies utilise Grain SA’s income and
cost analyses to compare the profitability of the different
grains and oilseeds crops produced in South Africa.
●
Financial institutions
Financial institutions use Grain SA’s market information on
an annual basis, in the process of considering agricultural
financing to producers.
●
Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF)
It has been noted that numerous personnel of the DAFF
in the different provinces do not compile their own
production costs for grain. The personnel thus make use
of Grain SA’s figures.
●
Agribusinesses
Grain SA works in partnership with different agribusinesses
when the actual production cost figures are gathered.
●
Insurance companies and grain traders
Insurance companies and grain traders use our figures to
manage risks, while Grain SA and organised agriculture also
need production cost figures at various occasions to liaise
with policymakers.
In order for the free market in South Africa to operate efficiently
and for producers to make well-informed farming decisions,
unbiased information with a high level of integrity is essential.
Therefore Grain SA also distributes international and local grain
market information on a regular basis.
Processed sources for supply and demand information about
grain may be readily available in the world market, but similar
information about the African and South African market
is incomplete. There is no other formal source available
of market assimilated information than that supplied by
G
raan SA se strategiese doelwitte is nie net daarop gemik
om winsgewende en volhoubare graanproduksie vir
kommersiële en ontwikkelende produsente te bewerk-
stellig nie, maar ook op die vervulling van ons maatskaplike
verantwoordelikheid.
Die organisasie se produksie- en inkomstekostesyfers en mark-
inligting word deur verskeie rolspelers in die graanwaardeketting
gebruik om ingeligte besluite in hul eie besighede te neem, hetsy
dit is om hul belegging in die graanbedryf te verhoog of om
ondersteuning aan produsente te verleen.
Hierdie rolspelers sluit in:
●
Navorsers en navorsingsinstansies
Dit is noodsaaklik vir navorsers om ekonomiese ontledings
in hul navorsingstudies in te sluit. Graan SA word dus dikwels
deur verskillende navorsers en navorsingsinstansies, spesifiek
universiteite, vir ons graandata gekontak.
●
Insetverskaffers
Verskeie insetverskaffers, soos saad-, kunsmis- of landbouche-
miese maatskappye maak van Graan SA se inkomste- en
koste-ontledings gebruik om die winsgewendheid van
verskillende grane en oliesadegewasse wat in Suid-Afrika
geproduseer word, te vergelyk.
●
Finansiële instellings
Finansiële instellings maak op ‘n jaarlikse basis van
Graan SA se markinligting gebruik wanneer die toestaan
van landboufinansiering aan produsente oorweeg word.
●
Departement van Landbou, Bosbou en Visserye (DLBV)
Daar word kennis geneem dat talle personeellede van die
DLBV in verskillende provinsies nie hul eie produksiekoste vir
graan saamstel nie. Die personeel maak dus van Graan SA se
data gebruik.
●
Agri-besighede
Graan SA werk in vennootskap saam met verskillende
agri-besighede wanneer die werklike produksiekostesyfers
versamel word.
●
Versekeringsmaatskappye en graanhandelaars
Versekeringsmaatskappye en graanhandelaars maak van
ons syfers gebruik om risiko’s te bestuur, terwyl Graan SA en
georganiseerde landbou op verskeie geleenthede ook pro-
duksiekostesyfers benodig om met beleidmakers te skakel.
Objektiewe inligting is noodsaaklik vir die effektiewe funksione-
ring van die vrye mark in Suid-Afrika en vir produsente om
goed ingeligte besigheidsbesluite te neem. Daarom versprei
Graan SA ook internasionale en plaaslike graanmarkinligting
op ‘n gereelde basis.
Verwerkte bronne van vraag en aanbod-inligting vir graan
is geredelik beskikbaar in die wêreldmark, maar soortgelyke
verwerkte inligting vir die Afrika- en die Suid-Afrikaanse mark
is onvolledig. Daar is geen ander formele bron van verwerkte
inligting anders as dit wat deur Graan SA voorsien word nie. Dit
behels die insameling, volgehoue navorsing en vertolking van
inligting vir die plaaslike bedryf.
Die markinligting wat gratis deur Graan SA beskikbaar gestel
word, word deur plaaslike en internasionale maatskappye en
organisasies erken.
Die volgende rolspelers het tydens 2013/2014 voordeel daaruit
getrek en van Graan SA se markinligting gebruik gemaak:
●
Finansiële instellings.
●
Openbare belanghebbendes.
●
Handel- en graanlogistieke verwante belanghebbendes.
●
Produksie- en insetverwante belanghebbendes.
●
Media.
●
Verbruikers van graan.
●
Produsente.
●
Konsultante.
●
Internasionale belanghebbendes.
●
Politici en politieke analiste.
●
Voedselsekerheidsverwante belanghebbendes.
Grain SA. This entails the collection, continual research and
interpretation of information for the local industry.
The public and free availability of market information supplied
by Grain SA are recognised by local and international
companies and organisations.
The following role-players benefited in 2013/2014 and utilised
Grain SA’s marketing information:
●
Financial institutions.
●
Public stakeholders.
●
Trade and grain logistics related stakeholders.
●
Production and input related stakeholders.
●
Media.
●
Consumers of grain.
●
Producers.
●
Consultants.
●
International stakeholders.
●
Politicians and political analysts.
●
Food security related stakeholders.
MADEPOSSIBLEBY
THEMAIZETRUST
GRAIN MARKETING
Producers are encouraged
to consistently communicate
with Grain SA Industry
Service team on advice
about market conditions as
the season unfolds.
A
griculture is generally an uncertain/
risky business. Farmers face multiple
challenges, from inputs, weather
and crop yield, to harvesting and selling of
produce at fair prices. South Africa produces
a number of commodities, but this article will
focus on maize, specically the fundamental
factors behind maize price movements.
This topic has recently generated interest,
especially after maize prices reached
high levels between November 2013 and
February 2014.
There are a number of factors that inuence
maize price movements, but the fundamental
factors are domestic weather conditions, supply
and demand, exchange rate (that is, the value
of South African Rand to the US Dollar), and
ChicagoBoardofTrade (CBOT)prices.General-
ly, these factorsdrivemaizepricesonday today
basis. However, their impact is not always the
same.Amorepracticalexample is that;between
October and February annually, domestic maize
price movements are to a large extent generally
inuenced by domesticweather conditions.
Putting the aforementioned into context,
in the beginning of 2014 South African maize
prices were at their highest levels due to in-
creased buying appetite from countries such
as Mexico, Zimbabwe, Taiwan and Japan.
Additionally, there was an unexpected appetite
from Zimbabwe, which totalled South Africa’s
exports to Zimbabwe at around 240 000 tons.
It is important to note that, at that time cli-
matic weather conditions were expected to
be the main driver of maize prices, but were
outweighedbyunexpectedbuyingappetiteand
low old season stocks.
However, around May 2014, maize prices
softened to the lowest levels due to increased
harvest pressure. Additionally, 2014/15 mar-
keting year had a big crop, estimated at
14,3 million tons, which further pressured the
maize prices. Moreover, South Africa also
experienced soft demand from traditional ex-
port markets, hence pushing down the maize
prices. These factors are hoped to have briey
highlighted the dynamics of themaizemarkets.
Looking forward to 2015, the Crop Esti-
mate Committee expects South Africa’s total
maize area plantings to slightly decrease by
3,3% year-on-year, to 2,6 million hectares.
Moreover, throughout November 2014, there
have been generally favourable climatic con-
ditions across the country. If these favour-
able climatic conditions persist, the country
might stand a good chance of receiving a good
crop. Nevertheless, it is important to note that
in Mpumalanga Province, the maize crop will
be behind schedule due to delayed plantings
which were caused by dry weather condition
around October 2014. Assuming that condi-
tions remain favourable, South African maize
prices are expected to remain at soft levels,
with additional pressure coming from soft
prices in the CBOT at the back record United
States crop.
Hereafter, producers are encouraged to
consistently communicatewithGrainSA Indus-
tryService team on advice aboutmarket condi-
tions as the season unfolds. Grain SA Industry
service also sends out SMS’s to the producers
showing daily grain and oilseed price move-
ments, as well as the morning and afternoon
market commentary.
Article submittedbyWandileSihlobo,
GrainSAEconomist.Formore information,
sendanemail
.
A brief overview
on local maize prices
8
Pula Imvula_Februarie_English2015.indd 8
2015/01/22 03:51:49PM
2015/02/03
08:56 AM
Grain SA's Morning Market Commentary
Wandile Sihlobo and Luzelle Botha
DATE
2015/02/03
Data
∆
∆%
Data
∆%
Data
∆%
Data
∆%
Data
DJIA-indeks
17361 196.09
1.1% 17165
0% 17387
0% 17372
12% 15445
Goud (Spot)
1274.55 -6.49
-0.5% 1281.04
-1% 1291.48
5% 1213.57
2% 1254.30
Brent$/vat
52.95
0.00
0.0% 52.95
8% 49.03
4% 50.77
-50% 106.11
1€:?US$
1.1328 0.002
0.2% 1.1305
0% 1.1356
-5% 1.1878
-16% 1.3506
1US$:?ZAR
11.53 -0.086
-0.7% 11.62
-1% 11.60
-2% 11.73
4% 11.14
∆CBOT
8vm :12nm*
R1686.85
2
0.1% R1684.58
∆CBOT
8vm :12nm*
R4086.46
-15
-0.4% R4100.97
∆CBOT
8vm :12nm*
R2103.09
-40
-1.9% R2143.35
CornMar15
371.50
3.25
0.9% 368.25
-3% 381.25
-8% 405.00
-21% 468.00
Corn Jul15
386.75
2.50
0.7% 384.25
-3% 397.00
-8% 420.25
-19% 476.75
SoybeanMar15
964.25
3.75
0.4% 960.50
-1% 973.75
-9% 1055.75
-14% 1119.50
SoybeanMay15
970.50
3.50
0.4% 967.00
-1% 981.25
-9% 1061.50
-13% 1120.75
WheatMar15
496.25 -5.75
-1.1% 502.00
-4% 519.00
-16%
591.75
-20%
621.25
SORGHUMMar15
2150
-70
-3.2% 2220
-7% 2300
-8% 2330
-39%
3500
WMAZFeb15
2180
83
4.0% 2097
10% 1982
3% 2113
-32%
3225
WMAZ Jul15
2176
80
3.8% 2096
9% 2005
2% 2127
-2%
2212
YMAZFeb15
2130
60
2.9% 2070
7% 1992
NA
-34%
3215
YMAZ Jul15
2122
64
3.1% 2058
6% 2009
-1% 2139
-4%
2213
SOY50Feb15
5575
-55
-1.0% 5630
0% 5555
-2% 5699
NA
SOYMay15
4835
-15
-0.3% 4850
0% 4815
-3% 5010
-19%
5990
SUNFeb15
5000
-80
-1.6% 5080
3% 4870
-1% 5075
-17%
6050
SUNMay15
4830
-29
-0.6% 4859
3% 4680
1% 4780
-6%
5145
WHEATFeb15
3908
-14
-0.4% 3922
0% 3904
-3% 4036
3%
3795
WHEATMar15
3950
-18
-0.5% 3968
0% 3950
-3% 4080
3%
3825
*CBOTSoyaMar sent/skepel08:00vandagvsCBOTSoyaMar12:00dievorigedag
*CBOTWheatMar sent/skepel08:00vandagvsCBOTWheatMar12:00dievorigedag
JongsteCBOTpryse tydensoornagverhandeling (Aangeteken tussen06:00 -07:00vm teenoor
12:00vmdievorigeverhandelingsdag
)
JongsteMTM-pryse (Aangeteken tussen07:00vm -08:00vmopdie jongste tweedatums)
SPOT=naastekontrakmaand
Letasbdievolgende:
DATE
2015/02/02
+ -WEEKAGO
2015/01/27
LATESTMARKET INFORMATIONTO23:00 (RSATIME)ASOBTAINED FROMVARIOUSMARKETREPORTS
+ -MONTHAGO
2015/01/06
+ -YEARAGO
2014/02/04
*CBOTCornMar sent/skepel08:00vandagvsCBOTCornMar12:00dievorigedag
ExternalMarket Factors:
TheRand strengthened by0.6%against theUSdollar from the levels seen atmidday yesterday,which is not supportive of
domestic commodity prices. International commodity prices arebullish this morning, with theexception ofUSWheat March15 contractmonth price.
Therefore, the price levels of the CBOT since12h00pm yesterday indicate apotential increaseofR5on themaize export parity prices, apotential
decrease ofR9on soybean import parity prices, and apotential decreaseofR37onwheat import parity prices.
Wheat:
USwheat prices aremainly pressured by favourable climatic conditions in theUnited States.There are reports of fading concernsover dryness
seenas threatening prospects forwinter wheat seedlings inparts of theUSPlains; showers this past weekend improved moisture forwheat. Kansasand
Nebraska,whichare keyUSwheat producers arealso reported tobeexperiencing favourable climatic conditions, after receiving rains ofabout1.25
inches and snowofup to8 inches over theweekend.
In the Black Sea,Russia showed strongwheat exports (1.5million tons) in January, in the runup to thewheat export tariff ofat leastE35 (Euros)a tonne
whichwent live on Sunday.Russia is the leading SouthAfrica’s wheat supplier, currently (2014/15), South Africa’s wheat imports from Russiaamounts
to246478 tons,which isabout 40%of the total imports. SouthAfrica’s 2014/15wheat imports are expected to reach1.7million tons.
Barley:
EU’s commission trimmed their 2015barley stocksestimates by310000 tons, to3.68million tons.While, their exports were upgraded by2
million tons from the lastestimate to8million tons.That rateofexports would still,however, bebehind last season's 8.77million tons.EU’s barley
shipments so far this season, areat5.09million tons, running260,000 tonshigher yearon year, the commission's estimate implies anexpectation ofa
slowdown inexports ahead.
Maize:
Yesterday,domestic maize prices received good support from dryweather conditions. Going forward, maize prices areexpected to remain
supportas recentweather forecasts continue to showno rain event this week.Weather forecasts canbe accessedat
and
.
Soybean
: International soybeanprices were slightly up,but there is still anegative sentiment in the soybean markets,owing to largeexpected supplies
fromBrazil. Moreover, recent reports talk of favourable climatic conditions in South America, whichmight further soften thesoybeanprices.Rainfall is
expected tobeabout average inArgentina this week,while average-to-above-average rains is expected inBrazil
Sources:
Agrimoney.com, wxmaps, RMD,Bloomberg, JSE,CME,Fin24, IGC,USDA.
Domestic Market Insights&Data:
International Market Insights&Data:
Foranyqueries
,please contact:Wandile Sihlobo, Email:
Dieverslag is vir inligtingsdoeleindesopgestelenalwordditasbetroubaarbeskoukanGraanSAniedieakkuraatheidofvolledigheiddaarvanwaarborgnie. Rig
navraeaanWessel
29
February 2015
OP PLAASVLAK
Die impak van weerstoestande op die
binnelandse mieliemark
d
ie weervooruitsigte vir Suid-Afrika, die omvang van
oordragvoorrade en verwagte diepsee mielie-uitvoer-
syfers skep onsekerheid oor die komende bemarkings-
jaar vanafMei 2015.
Hoe seker is die mieliehandel dat
voorra e voldoende gaan wees?
Inhierdieartikelworddrie scenario’sgeskepom ‘nbeterperspektief
opdie toekomstige vraag en aanbod-situasie virSuid-Afrika te kry.
Vraag en aanbod vir die
2014/2015-bemarkingsjaar (ou seisoen)
Die 2014/2015-bemarkingsjaar word deur ‘n nasionale gemiddelde
rekordopbrengs van 5,32 ton/ha gekenmerk.Produksie het 14,3mil-
joen ton beloop, terwyl die verwagte witmielie-uitvoersyfer van
600000 ton teleurgestelhet.
Die verwagte rekorduitvoersyfer van ,4 miljoen ton geelmielies
het egter daartoe bygedra dat die totale mielie-eindvoorraad wat
einde April 2015 oorgedra word na die 2015/2016-bemarkingsjaar,
beperkword tot 1 979 000 ton.
Die totale uitvoersyfer behoort 1 910 000 ton te beloop.Die surplus
bodiepyplyn kan 757 000 tonbeloop.Onderhierdiemarktoestande
neig pryse om nader aan uitvoerprysvlakke te verhandel. Met die
skryf van dié artikel as pryse ongeveer R600/ton bo uitvoerpari-
teit,wat indie verledeongewoon souwe s vir ‘n surplusproduksie-
jaar. Die voorraad mielies is dus nie noodwendig beskikbaar in die
markpleknie.
Vraag en aanbod vir die
2015/2
ngsjaar (nuwe seisoen)
Die nuwe bemarkingsjaar skop op 1 Mei af met ‘n groot oordrag-
voorraad van 1 979 000 ton. Tydens die skryf van hierdie artikel het
daaronsekerheidoorweervooruitsigtegeheers.
WESSEL LEMMER,
senior ekonoom:Bedryfsdienste,GraanSA
GRAANMARK
-oorsig
23 Januarie 2015
2014/2015
SCENARIO’SVIR 2015/2016SEMIDSOMER
‘NREKORDOPBRENGS
VAN 5,32TON/HAHET
DROËPRODUKSIE
TOESTANDE
4TON/HA
GEMIDDELDE
PRODUKSIETOE-
STANDE 4,7TON/HA
GUNSTIGEPRODUK-
SIETOESTANDE
5,4TON/HA
Beginvoorraad
589 000
1 979 000
1 979 000
1 979 000
12 137 000
13 959 000
Invoere
0
450 000
0
0
Aan d
000
12 213 000
13 585 000
15 407 000
Voedselverbruik
4 850 000
4 860 000
4 860 000
4 860 000
Voerverbruik
4 920 000
4 929 000
4 929 000
4 929 000
Uitvoere
2 110 000
705 000
2 065 000
2 395 000
Eindvoorraad
1 979 000
1 217 000
1 229 000
2 721 000
Surplusbodiepyplynvoorraad
757 000
-7 000
5 000
1 497 000
TABEL 1:DIEVRAAG ENAANBOD-BERAMINGVIRMIELIESVIRDIE 2014/2015-SEISOEN ENSCENARIO’SVIRDIE 2015/2016-BEMAR-
KINGSJAAR (MEI TOTAPRIL).
Produksie:VolgensdieNasionaleOesskattingskomitee vir 2014/2015 enopbrengsscenario’s.
Aanbod:Die som vandiebeginvoorraad,produksie, vroeë lewerings, terughoudings en saadproduksie.
Eindvoorraad:Anderongespesifiseerde verbruik isook in aanmerkinggeneem saammet voedsel en voerverbruik.
Surplusbodiepyplynvoorraad:Die termb ryfdie surpluswatoorblyna atdiepyplynvoorraad vandie eindvoorraa afgetrekis.Diepyplynvoorraad is voorraadwat
vir ‘nperiode van 1,5maandenodig i
by aannul is,beginpryseondersteuninggeniet.
Grafiek 1: ‘nVergelyking tussendie rand/dollar-wisselkoers endie
dollar/euro.
