Industry Services
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Market overview for grain and oilseeds
Markoorsig vir graan en oliesade
dat die differensiaalkwessie ‘n simptoom van ‘n gebrek aan
deursigtigheid van kontantmarkpryse is.
Die ontwikkeling van die kontantmark en deursigtigheidmoet die
fokus wees in toekomstige doelwitte om die belangrikheid van
die liggingsdifferensiaal in kontantmarktransaksies te verminder.
Mieliebemarkingsjaar
Die bemarkingsinligtingjaar vir verslagdoening oor vraag en
aanbod vir alle wintergraan strek van Oktober tot September.
Die bemarkingsjaar vir somergraan, mielies uitgesluit, strek van
Maart tot Februarie. Graan SA het aan die bedryf voorgestel
dat die bemarkingsjaar vir mielies ook van Maart tot Februarie
moet strek, wat die onsekerheid van vroeë lewerings heeltemal
kan uitskakel. Graan SA se vraag- en aanbodinligting sal hierdie
bemarkingstydperk weerspieël.
Handelaarstoewydingsverslag
Van der Vyfer enMeyer (2014) se verslag,
Positioning reportingby
category in agricultural derivatives markets: Should South Africa
follow international best practices?
meld dat dit op die oog af
lyk asof Suid-Afrika met internasionale praktyke ooreenstem.
Volgens hierdie navorsing, wat deur Graan SA geïnisieer is, is die
kategorisering van posisies geneem (verskansing of spekulasie)
op die JSE se mark vir afgeleide kommoditeite (JSE CDM)
onvermydelik, veral as die CDM met internasionale praktyke wil
ooreenstem.
Internasionale handel
Die langdurige ekonomiese vennootskapsooreenkoms (EPA)
onderhandelinge tussen ‘n groep SAOG-lande en die Europese
Unie is uiteindelik op 15 Julie 2014 afgehandel. Graan SA het
dit reggekry om ‘n beperkte tariefkwota van 300 000 ton op
ingevoerde koring te beding.
Graderingsregulasies
Gradering van sojabone
Die vinnige uitbreiding van sojaboonproduksie plaas byko-
mende druk op die silobedryf. Graan SA werk met die
silobedryf en die DLBV saam om ‘n bevredigende oplossing vir
die uitvoering van die sojaboongraderingsregulasies te vind.
Produsente moet seker maak dat hulle produkte in ooreen-
stemming met die Wet op Landbouprodukstandaarde
gegradeer word. Dit is van toepassing op alle graan- en olie-
saadkommoditeite.
Gradering van sorghum
Die sorghumbedryf het toenemend kultivars nodig wat nie
noodwendig aan die moutvereistes voldoen nie. Ons het
voorgestel dat veranderinge aan die regulasie aanvaar word
om tussen tannienvrye (0<,2%) en tannienbevattende kultivars
te onderskei. Die voorstel moet nog aanvaar word.
Gradering van koring
Die gekwalifiseerde verslapping van die graderingsregulasies
en kultivarvrystellingskriteria vir koring kan tot ‘n regverdiger
graderingstelsel in die mark lei. Graan SA het veranderinge
aan die graderingsregulasies voorgestel en gesels aktief met
waardekettinglede om dringend strategiese oplossings te kry.
the differential issue is a symptom of a lack of transparency of
cash market prices.
The development of the cash market and transparency should
be the focus in future objectives to reduce the importance of
the location differential in cash market transactions.
Maize marketing year
The marketing information year on supply and demand
reporting for all winter grains is from October to September
each year. The marketing year for summer grains, except for
maize, is from March to February. Grain SA proposed to the
industry that the marketing year for maize should also be from
March to February, as this would completely eliminate the
uncertainty of early deliveries. Grain SA’s supply and demand
information will reflect this marketing period.
Commitment of traders report
In their report,
Positioning reporting by category in agricultural
derivatives markets: Should South Africa follow international
best practices?
, Van der Vyfer and Meyer (2014) report
that on the surface it appears that South Africa is in line with
international practices.
According to this research, initiated by Grain SA, the cat-
egorising of positions taken (hedging or speculating) on the
JSE Commodity Derivatives Market (JSE CDM) is inevitable,
especially if the CDM wishes to be in line with international
practices.
International trade
The long-running economic partnership agreement (EPA)
negotiations between a group of SADC countries and the
European Union were finally concluded on 15 July 2014.
Grain SA managed to negotiate a limited tariff quota of
300 000 tons on imported wheat.
Grading regulations
Grading of soybeans
The rapid expansion in soybean production places additional
pressure on the silo industry. Grain SA collaborates with the
silo industry and DAFF to find a satisfactory solution for the
execution of the soybean grading regulations.
Producers should ensure that their products are graded in
accordance with the Agricultural Product Standards Act. This
applies to all grain and oilseed commodities.
Grading of sorghum
The sorghum industry increasingly requires cultivars that do
not necessarily meet malting requirements. We proposed that
changes to the regulation be accepted in order to differentiate
between tannin-free (0<,2%) and tannin-containing cultivars.
The proposal still needs to be accepted.
Grading of wheat
The qualified relaxing of the grading regulations and cultivar
release criteria for wheat could lead to a more just grading
system in the market. Grain SA proposed changes to the
grading regulations and is actively engaging with supply chain
members to reach strategic solutions as a matter of urgency.
2011
2012
2013/2014
2014/2015*
Sunflower/Sonneblom
676 300
648 300
662 600
804 000
Soybean/Sojaboon
247 300
412 300
561 600
720 000
Subtotal/Subtotaal
923 600
1 060 600
1 224 200
1 524 000
Canola/Kanola
56 600
74 700
95 000
105 000
Total/Totaal
980 200
1 135 300
1 319 200
1 629 000
Table 1: The increase in the crushing of oilseeds.
Tabel 1: Die toename in die pers van oliesade.
* Projected
* Geprojekteer
persaanlegte: Oliesade
Volgens die Proteïennavorsingstigting (PNS) was die totale
sojaboonperskapasiteit in Suid-Afrika in 2012 slegs 600 000 ton
met vyf persaanlegte. Teen 2013/2014 het vyf nuwe maatskap-
pye die kapasiteit tot 1,5 miljoen ton verhoog. Die totale doelwit
is 2 102 000 ton in 2014. Die totale volvet-produksiekapasiteit se
doelwit is 580 000 ton. Die huidige sojameelvraag is 1,3 miljoen
ton wat gelyk is aan 1,63 miljoen ton sojabone. Die 2015-vraag
kan tot 1,6 miljoen ton (bykans 2 miljoen ton sojabone) wees.
In 2020 kan die vraag na sojameel meer as 1,82 miljoen ton
(2,3 miljoen ton sojabone) wees.
Die groter perskapasiteit sal na verwagting die groeiende
invoer van oliekoek en plantolie stuit en die produksie van
sojabone, sonneblom en kanola verhoog.
Tabel 1
toon die
verhoogde persing van oliesade.
Handel en handelsbeleidomgewing
Koringinvoertarief
ITAC het Graan SA se aansoek om ‘n nuwe verwysingsprysvlak
van $294/ton goedgekeur. ‘n Koringtarief is vasgestel toe die
FOB Golf HRW Nr. 2-koringprys vir drie opeenvolgende weke in
September tot ‘n vlak van $284/ton gedaal het. Die tarief van
R156/ton skep ‘n meer stabiele omgewing en sekerheid met die
potensiaal om koringproduksie te verhoog.
Liggingsdifferensiale
Talle insette is voor en sedert 2008 gemaak oor die funksionering
van die termynmark en die liggingsdifferensiaal. Die JSE het ‘n
besigheidsbesluit geneem om die differensiaalstelsel te behou.
Graan SA ondersteun nie die JSE se liggingsdifferensiaalstelsel
nie en gaan voort omdie billike berekening van die differensiaal
te moniteer.
Die mieliedifferensiaal het in Maart 2014 gemiddeld met 9,8%
gestyg na die oorspronklike voorgestelde styging van 12,9%. Hier-
deur het Graan SA meer as R100 miljoen vir produsente gespaar.
Graan SA het vir die JSE aangedui dat die differensiaal by
Wesselsbron verkeerd gepubliseer is. Die regstelling daarvan
beteken ‘n potensiële besparing van ongeveer R4,125 miljoen vir
produsente wat mielies by die Wesselsbronsilo lewer.
Kontantmarkdeursigtigheid en
basisverhandeling
Prof Mathew Roberts, wat deur die NLBR aangestel om die
funksionering van die termynmark te ondersoek, het aangedui
Crushing plants: oilseeds
According to the Protein Research Foundation (PRF) the total
soybean crushing capacity in South Africa in 2012 was only
600 000 tons, as represented by five crushing plants. By 2013/2014
five new companies had increased the capacity to 1,5 million
tons. The total objective is 2 102 000 tons in 2014. The total full fat
production capacity aims at 580 000 tons. The current soybean
meal demand is 1,3 million tons, which is equal to 1,63 million tons
of soybeans. The 2015 soybean meal demand may increase to
1,6 million tons (almost 2 million tons of soybeans). By 2020 the
soybean meal demand may exceed 1,82 million tons (2,3 million
tons of soybeans).
The greater crushing capacity is expected to stop the growing
imports of oilcake and vegetable oil and to increase the
production of soybeans, sunflower and canola.
Table 1
shows
the increased crushing of oilseeds.
Trade and trade policy environment
Wheat import tariff
ITAC approved the application by Grain SA for a new reference
price level of $294/ton. A wheat tariff was set when the
FOB Gulf HRW no. 2 wheat price decreased to a level of less
than $284/ton for three consecutive weeks in September.
The tariff of R156/ton creates a more stable environment and
certainty, with the potential of increasing wheat production.
Location differentials
Numerous inputs were made since 2008 and before on the
functioning of the futures market and the location differential. The
JSE made a business decision to retain the differential system.
Grain SA does not support the JSE’s location differential system
and continues to monitor the fair calculation of the differential.
The maize differential increased on average by 9,8%
during March 2014 after the original proposed increase
of 12,9%. Grain SA thus saved more than R100 million
for producers.
Grain SA indicated to the JSE that the differential at Wesselsbron
had been published incorrectly. The correction of this means
a potential saving of roughly R4,125 million for producers
delivering maize to the Wesselsbron silo.
Cash market transparency and basis trading
Prof Mathew Roberts, who was commissioned by the NAMC to
investigate the functioning of the futures market, indicated that
Markoorsig (vervolg)
Market overview (continued)
