3% meer as die vorige jaar. Sedert Oktober ‘n jaar gelede
het die prys van sonneblom uit die Europese Unie-lande
met 9% toegeneem weens droë weersomstandighede in
talle produksiegebiede. Die jaar-tot-jaar styging van 38%
van Suid-Afrikaanse sonneblompryse was die gevolg van
groeiende binnelandse vraag en lae produksie.
Die oordragvoorraad vir grondbone het weens ‘n
31%-afname in produksie tot 18 000 ton gedaal. Die
2015/2016-produksie word op 56 675 ton geskat. Invoere
kan tot 7 000 ton afneem. Graan SA verwag dat uitvoere
met 34% sal daal vanaf 12 100 ton in 2014/2015 tot 8 000 ton
in 2015/2016. Die kommersiële lewering van kanola sal na
verwagting in 2015/2016 met 13% of 105 400 ton styg. Die
kommersiële aanbod daal met 1% weens ‘n 18%-afname
in die oppervlakte geplant (vanaf 95 000 hektaar tot
78 050 hektaar). Die oordragvoorraad vir 2015/2016
kan tot 43 500 ton afneem.
Wintergraan
Koring het in die tweede week van Oktober 2015 teen
R4 110 per ton verhandel, ‘n 14%-verhoging jaar-tot-jaar.
Koringpryse het momentum gekry weens ‘n styging in
vraag en vrese vir laer produksie in die Swartsee-lande en
Australië. Om in die plaaslike vraag van 3 468 000 ton te
voorsien, moet Suid-Afrika dalk bykans 1,8 miljoen ton koring
in 2015/2016 invoer.
‘n Enkele garskoper bepaal die prys van moutgars en
dit word aan die Safex-koringprys gekoppel. Invoere sal
na verwagting met 20% daal tot 60 000 ton in 2015/2016
aangesien die verwagte kommersiële produksie van
347 000 ton in die vraag sal voorsien. Die toename kom van
‘n 10%-verhoging in die oppervlakte aangeplant, vanaf
85 125 hektaar in 2014 tot 93 730 hektaar in 2015.
UITVOERBEVORDERING
Ontwikkeling van nuwe markte
Tabel 1
lys die geïdentifiseerde sleutelmarkte vir mielie-
uitvoere. Suid-Afrika het reeds sy markaandeel in talle
Key export markets for the South African maize industry
Sleuteluitvoermarkte vir die Suid-Afrikaanse mieliebedryf
1
Prioritise development in the short to medium term
Prioritiseer ontwikkeling oor die kort tot medium termyn
Counrty
Land
Status
Restriction
Beperking
Japan
Present/
Teenwoordig
n/a/
n.v.t.
Mexico/
Mexiko
Present/
Teenwoordig
n/a/
n.v.t.
Taiwan/Chinese Taipei
Present/
Teenwoordig
n/a/
n.v.t.
Zimbabwe
Present/
Teenwoordig
n/a/
n.v.t.
United Arab Emirates/
Verenigde Arabiese Emirate
No presence/
Geen teenwoordigheid
n/a/
n.v.t.
China
Present/
Teenwoordig
n/a/
n.v.t.
Thailand
Present/
Teenwoordig
n/a/
n.v.t.
Prioritise development in the medium to long term
Prioritiseer ontwikkeling oor die medium tot lang termyn
Saudi Arabia/
Saoedi-Arabië
Present/
Teenwoordig
n/a/
n.v.t.
Egypt/
Egipte
No presence/
Geen teenwoordigheid
Existing GMO restrictions/
Bestaande
GMO-beperkings
Indonesia/
Indonesië
No presence/
Geen teenwoordigheid
n/a/
n.v.t.
Vietnam/
Viëtnam
No presence/
Geen teenwoordigheid
n/a/
n.v.t.
Iran
No presence/
Geen teenwoordigheid
n/a/
n.v.t.
Table
Tabel
seed oil were imported in 2014, which is 3% higher than in
the previous year. Since October a year ago the price of
sunflower from the European Union countries increased by 9%
due to dry weather conditions across many production areas.
The 38% year-on-year price increase in South African sunflower
prices was on the back of increasing domestic demand and
low production.
The carry-over stock for groundnuts decreased to
18 000 tons due to a 31% decrease in production. The
2015/2016 production is estimated at 56 675 tons. Imports
can decline to 7 000 tons. Grain SA expects exports to de-
crease by 34%, from 12 100 tons in 2014/2015 to 8 000 tons in
2015/2016. The commercial delivery of canola is expected to
increase by 31% or 105 000 tons in 2015/2016. The commercial
supply decreased by 1% due to an 18% decrease in the area
planted (from 95 000 hectares to 78 050 hectares). The carry-
over stock for 2015/2016 might decrease to 43 500 tons.
Winter grains
Wheat traded at R4 110 per ton during the second week
of October 2015 – a 14% year-on-year increase. Wheat
prices gained momentum owing to an increase in de-
mand as well as fears of lower production in the Black Sea
countries and Australia. To meet the domestic demand
of 3 468 000 tons, South Africa may need to import
almost 1,8 million tons of wheat in 2015/2016.
The price of malting barley is determined by a single barley
buyer and is linked to the Safex wheat price. Imports are
expected to decrease by 20% to 60 000 tons in 2015/2016
as the expected commercial production of 347 000 tons
will satisfy the demand. This increase is due to a 10%
increase in the area planted, from 85 125 hectares
in 2014 to 93 730 hectares in 2015.
EXPORT PROMOTION
Development of new markets
Table 1
lists the identified key markets for maize exports.
South Africa has already established its market share in
van hierdie lande gevestig. Dit moet in stand gehou word
om langtermyngroei moontlik te maak. Graan SA poog
deurlopend om toegang tot ander markte soos Egipte,
Indonesië, Viëtnam en Iran te verkry.
Graan SA het ook uitvoermarkte vir sorghum geïdentifiseer
nadat die vraag uit Botswana begin daal het. Japan
en Europa is aantreklike markte, maar Afrika bied ook
moontlike markte soos Soedan en Ethiopië.
INVOERVERVANGING EN
BEDRYFSONTWIKKELING
Biobrandstofregulasies
Die Departement van Energie het ‘n biobrandstofimple-
menteringskomitee aangestel. Graan SA ondersteun die
Departemente van Landbou, Bosbou en Visserye (DLBV)
en van Energie (DvE) om regulasies vir grondstofproduksie
daar te stel. Die biobrandstofregulasies moet nog aan die
kabinet voorgelê en dan in die
Staatskoerant
gepubliseer
word vir implementering.
Persaanlegte: Oliesade
Suid-Afrika se sojaboonperskapasiteit van 600 000 ton in
2012 het intussen tot ongeveer 2,3 miljoen ton toegeneem.
Ongeveer 1,3 miljoen ton hiervan kan ook vir die pers van
sonneblom gebruik word. In Oktober 2015 was sommige
van die persaanlegte nog nie op volle kapasiteit nie.
Volgens die Proteïennavorsingstigting was Suid-Afrika se
sojaboonoliekoekvereistes in 2015/2016 1,5 miljoen ton
waarvan 55% ingevoer moet word. Die nuwe perskapasiteit
kan die groeiende invoer van oliekoek en plantolie stuit en
die produksie van sojabone, sonneblom en kanola verhoog.
HANDEL EN HANDELSBELEIDSOMGEWING
Koringinvoertarief
Die Internasionale Handelsadministrasiekommissie het ‘n
nuwe verwysingsprysvlak van $294 in 2013 goedgekeur. In
Oktober 2015 was die koringtarief R911,20 per ton na ‘n daling
van die internasionale koringprys tot minder as die basisprys.
Die tarief verseker ‘n meer stabiele omgewing.
Mielie-invoertarief
Graan SA het aansoek gedoen om die hersiening
van ‘n mielietarief vanaf ‘n verwysingsprys van $110
tot $233,39 per ton. Die styging in die verwysingsprys
bevoordeel langtermyn-nasionale voedselsekerheid.
Liggingsdifferensiale
Graan SA ondersteun nie die JSE se liggingsdifferensiaal-
stelsel nie en het in 2013 en 2014 op die afskaffing daarvan
gefokus. Na teenvoorstelle om die differensiale in plek te
laat, probeer Graan SA om dit so laag as moontlik te hou
en moniteer die berekening daarvan.
Kontantmarkdeursigtigheid en basisverhandeling
Prof Mathew Roberts, wat die funksionering van die termyn-
mark vir die Nasionale Landboubemarkingsraad (NLBR)
ondersoek, meen die differensiaalkwessie is ‘n simptoom
van ‘n gebrek aan deursigtige kontantmarkpryse.
Deursigtigheid is noodsaaklik vir ‘n akkurate kontantmark
wat fundamentele vraag- en aanbodelemente weerspieël.
many of these countries. These will need to be maintained
to make long-term growth possible. Grain SA makes
continuous efforts to access other markets such as Egypt,
Indonesia, Vietnam and Iran.
Grain SA has also identified export markets for sorghum
after the demand from Botswana started to decline. Japan
and Europe are attractive markets, but Africa also offers
possible markets like Sudan and Ethiopia.
IMPORT REPLACEMENT AND
INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT
Biofuel regulations
The Department of Energy established a biofuels
implementation committee. Grain SA supports the
Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF)
and Energy (DoE) in issuing regulations for raw-material
production. The biofuel regulations are yet to be submitted
to cabinet and then published in the
Government Gazette
for implementation.
Crushing plants: oilseeds
South Africa’s soybean crushing capacity of 600 000 tons
in 2012 has in the meantime increased to approximately
2,3 million tons. About 1,3 million tons of this can also be
used for crushing sunflower seed. In October 2015 some of
the crushing plants were not yet functioning at full capacity.
According to the Protein Research Foundation, South Africa’s
soybean oilcake requirements in 2015/2016 will be 1,5 million
tons, 55% of which would have to be imported. The new
crushing capacity can stop the growing imports of oilcake
and vegetable oil and increase the production of soybeans,
sunflower and canola.
TRADE AND TRADE POLICY ENVIRONMENT
Wheat import tariff
The International Trade Administration Commission
approved a new reference price level of $294/ton in 2013.
In October 2015, the wheat tariff was R911,20 per ton after
the international wheat price declined to less than the base
price. This tariff ensures a more stable environment.
Maize import tariff
Grain SA applied for the review of a maize tariff from a
reference price of $110 to $233,39 per ton. The increase in
the reference price benefits long-term national food security.
Location differentials
Grain SA does not support the JSE’s location differential
system and focused on abolishing it in 2013 and 2014.
After counter proposals to leave the differentials in place,
Grain SA has been trying to keep them as low as possible
and monitors their calculation.
Cash market transparency and basis trading
Prof Mathew Roberts, who is investigating the functioning
of the futures market for the National Agricultural Marketing
Council (NAMC), maintains that the differentials issue is a
symptom of a lack of transparent cash market prices.
Transparency is essential for an accurate cash market
that reflects supply and demand fundamentals.
Industry Services division
Afdeling bedryfsdienste
Markinligting (vervolg)
Market information (continued)
Market overview for grain and oilseeds
Markoorsig vir graan en oliesade
40
41
* Present – South Africa already exports maize to this specific country/
Teenwoordig – Suid-Afrika voer reeds mielies uit na hierdie land
* No presence * n/a – there is no GMO restriction/
Geen teenwoordigheid nie * n.v.t. – daar is geen GMO-beperking nie
