Die goudprys en die prys van Brent-ruolie het onderskeidelik
met 6% en 43% gedaal.
Die VSA-dollar versterk steeds weens verwagte rentekoers-
verhogings vroeg in 2016. Dit het tot die verswakking van
geldeenhede in ontluikende markte gelei. In Oktober 2015
het die rand met 20% jaar-tot-jaar teen die dollar verswak.
‘n Swakker rand ondersteun plaaslike kommoditeitspryse,
maar verhoog inflasionêre druk op ingevoerde
insetprodukte.
Sedert Oktober 2014 het CBOT-mielie-, -sojaboon- en
-koringpryse onderskeidelik met 4%, 11% en 25% gedaal.
Die vooruitsigte vir kommoditeitspryse wêreldwyd bly
laag, aangesien Suid-Amerika, die Verenigde State en die
Swartsee-lande groot voorrade het en relatief groot oeste
in 2015/2016 verwag.
Somergraan
Die droogte het tot ‘n beduidende afname in
sorghumproduksie gelei met ‘n 24%-verhoging in Safex-
pryse (ongeveer R3 040 per ton in Oktober 2015). Die
opwaartse druk vanaf die mieliemark het sorghumpryse
The JSE overall share index and R/$ exchange rate
Die JSE algehele indeks en die R/$-wisselkoers
2
02/01/2014
16/01/2014
30/01/2014
13/02/2014
27/02/2014
13/03/2014
27/03/2014
10/04/2014
24/04/2014
08/05/2014
22/05/2014
05/06/2014
19/06/2014
03/07/2014
17/07/2014
31/07/2014
14/08/2014
28/08/2014
11/09/2014
25/09/2014
09/10/2014
23/10/2014
06/11/2014
20/11/2014
04/12/2014
19/12/2014
02/01/2015
16/01/2015
30/01/2015
13/02/2015
27/02/2015
17/03/2015
31/03/2015
14/04/2015
28/04/2015
12/05/2015
26/05/2015
09/06/2015
23/06/2015
07/07/2015
21/07/2015
04/08/2015
18/08/2015
10/09/2015
15/09/2015
29/09/2015
13/10/2015
JSE Index
JSE Indeks
R/$
Graph
Grafiek
JSE Index/
JSE Indeks
56 000
Rand/$
$15,00
The F.O.B. price of USA maize and wheat
Die VAB-prys van VSA-mielies en -koring
3
02/01/2014
16/01/2014
30/01/2014
13/02/2014
27/02/2014
13/03/2014
27/03/2014
10/04/2014
24/04/2014
08/05/2014
22/05/2014
05/06/2014
19/06/2014
03/07/2014
17/07/2014
31/07/2014
14/08/2014
28/08/2014
11/09/2014
25/09/2014
09/10/2014
23/10/2014
06/11/2014
20/11/2014
04/12/2014
19/12/2014
02/01/2015
16/01/2015
30/01/2015
13/02/2015
27/02/2015
17/03/2015
31/03/2015
14/04/2015
28/04/2015
12/05/2015
26/05/2015
09/06/2015
23/06/2015
07/07/2015
21/07/2015
04/08/2015
18/08/2015
10/09/2015
15/09/2015
29/09/2015
13/10/2015
USA HRW
wheat
VSA HRW-
koring
USA Maize
VSA-mielies
Graph
Grafiek
Wheat price/
Koringprys ($/ton)
380
Maize price/
Mielieprys ($/ton)
330
Brent crude oil price decreased by 6% and 43%
respectively.
The US dollar continues to strengthen due to expected
interest rate hikes in early 2016. This has led to the weaken-
ing of emerging market currencies. In October 2015, the
rand weakened by 20% year-on-year against the dollar.
A weaker rand is supportive of domestic commodity
prices, but adds inflationary pressures to imported
input products.
Since October 2014, CBOT maize, soybean and wheat
prices decreased by 4%, 11% and 25% respectively. The
outlook for global commodity prices remains bearish, as
South America, the United States and the Black Sea
countries have large supplies and expect relatively
large crops in 2015/2016.
Summer grain
The drought has led to a significant decrease in sorghum
production, with a 24% increase in Safex-prices (around
R3 040 per ton in October 2015). The upwards pressure from
the maize market supported sorghum prices. No imports are
54 00
52 000
50 000
48 000
46 000
44 000
42 000
40 000
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
14,40
13,60
12,80
12,00
11,20
10,40
9,60
8,80
8,00
310
290
270
250
230
210
190
170
150
ondersteun. Aangesien groot voorrade beskikbaar is, word
geen invoere verwag nie. Die Internasionale Graanraad
het die 2015/2016 wêreld-sorghumproduksie op 69,9 miljoen
ton geskat. Dit is die hoogste die afgelope vier seisoene.
Die 2014/2015-droogte het tot ‘n 30% jaar-tot-jaarafname
in die mielie-oes gelei. Dit het tot hoë mieliepryse gelei,
met witmielies se prys wat 61% hoër was (ongeveer
R3 121 per ton). Geelmielies het teen R2 790 per ton
verhandel (43% hoër as ‘n jaar gelede).
In Oktober 2015 was die nuwe gewastermynkontrakpryse
vir lewering in Julie 2016 48% hoër vir witmielies en 35%
hoër vir geelmielies as ‘n jaar gelede weens onsekerheid
oor weervooruitsigte (
Grafiek 3
). In Oktober 2015 was
die Suid-Afrikaanse oordragvoorraadsyfer vir wit- en
geelmielies 1 454 000 ton, vergeleke met 2 074 000 in die
vorige bemarkingsjaar. Die geprojekteerde totale surplus
was 251 000 ton, vergeleke met 839 000 ton die vorige
jaar met die gevolg van 758 000 ton geprojekteerde
mielie-invoere vir 2015/2016. Uitvoere, meestal na
streekmarkte, word op 630 000 ton geskat.
Oliesade
Suid-Afrika se sojaboonproduksie was 1 041 600 ton, ‘n
12%-verhoging op die 2014/2015-oes. Die oppervlakte
onder sojabone het met 36% gegroei, maar die droogte
het ‘n oesverhoging gekortwiek. ‘n Groter vraag deur die
nuwe perskapasiteit en kleiner voorrade weens die droogte
ondersteun plaaslike pryse vir oliesade.
In Oktober 2015 het sojabone teen R5 397 per ton verhandel
(5% hoër as ‘n jaar gelede). Suid-Afrika se sojabooninvoere
kan in 2015/2016 op 140 000 ton stabiliseer indien die gepro-
jekteerde hoeveelheid sojabone wat vir olie en oliekoek
gepers word 880 000 ton, en volvet-sojaboonverbruik
142 000 ton bly.
Sonneblom het in Oktober 2015 teen ongeveer R6 605 per ton
verhandel (38% hoër as ‘n jaar gelede) (
Grafiek 4
). Plaaslike
produksie het vanaf 832 000 ton in 2014/2015 tot 660 900 ton
in 2015/2016 gedaal (‘n jaar-tot-jaardaling van 26%).
Die oordragvoorraadsyfer vir sonneblom kan aan die einde
van 2015/2016 120 600 ton haal, maar die toenemende
vraag van die persaanleg sal pryse waarskynlik ondersteun.
Ongeveer 146 690 ton sonneblomolie is in 2014 ingevoer,
The price of sunflower delivered in Randfontein
Die prys van sonneblom gelewer in Randfontein
4
02/01/2014
16/01/2014
30/01/2014
13/02/2014
27/02/2014
13/03/2014
27/03/2014
10/04/2014
24/04/2014
08/05/2014
22/05/2014
05/06/2014
19/06/2014
03/07/2014
17/07/2014
31/07/2014
14/08/2014
28/08/2014
11/09/2014
25/09/2014
09/10/2014
23/10/2014
06/11/2014
20/11/2014
04/12/2014
19/12/2014
02/01/2015
16/01/2015
30/01/2015
13/02/2015
27/02/2015
17/03/2015
31/03/2015
14/04/2015
28/04/2015
12/05/2015
26/05/2015
09/06/2015
23/06/2015
07/07/2015
21/07/2015
04/08/2015
18/08/2015
10/09/2015
15/09/2015
29/09/2015
13/10/2015
Safex
sunflower
Safex
sonneblom
EU import
parity
EU-invoer-
pariteit
EU export
parity
EU-uitvoer-
pariteit
Graph
Grafiek
R/ton
8 100
Markinligting (vervolg)
expected as large supplies are available. The International
Grains Council estimated the 2015/2016 global sorghum
production at 69,9 million tons. This is the highest for the
past four seasons.
The 2014/2015 drought resulted in a 30% year-on-year
decrease in the maize crop. This led to high maize
prices, with white maize prices going up by 61% (around
R3 121 per ton). Yellow maize traded at R2 790 per ton
(43% higher than a year ago).
In October 2015 the new crop futures prices for delivery in
July 2016 were 48% higher for white maize and 35% higher for
yellow maize compared to a year ago due to uncertainty
about weather prospects (
Graph 3
). In October 2015, the
total South African carry-over figure for white and yellow
maize was 1 454 000 tons, compared to 2 074 000 tons in the
previous marketing year. The projected total surplus was
251 000 tons, compared to 839 000 tons the previous year,
so that 758 000 tons of maize imports are projected for
2015/2016. Exports, mostly destined for regional markets,
were projected at 630 000 tons.
Oilseeds
South Africa’s soybean production reached 1 041 600 tons,
a 12% increase from the 2014/2015 crop. The area planted
with soybeans increased by 36%, but a crop increase
was curbed by the drought. A greater demand from the
new crushing capacity and smaller stocks because of the
drought support local prices for oilseeds.
In October 2015 soybeans traded at R5 397 per ton (5% higher
than a year ago). South African soybean imports may stabilise
at 140 000 tons in 2015/2016 should the projected soybean to
be crushed for oil and oilcake remain at 880 000 tons, and full
fat soybean consumption at 142 000 tons.
Sunflower seeds traded at around R6 605 per ton in
October 2015 (38% higher than a year ago) (
Graph 4
).
Domestic production decreased from 832 000 tons in
2014/2015 to 660 900 tons in 2015/2016 (a year-on-year
decrease of 26%).
The carry-over figure for sunflower seeds may reach
120 600 tons at the end of 2015/2016, but prices are likely
to remain supported due to the increasing demand from
the crushing plant. Approximately 146 690 tons of sunflower
Market information (continued)
7 700
7 300
6 900
6 500
6 100
5 700
5 300
4 900
4 500
4 100
3 700
3 300
Industry Services division
Afdeling bedryfsdienste
Market overview for grain and oilseeds
Markoorsig vir graan en oliesade
38
39
