SA Graan Mei 2016

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PANNAR se ongeëwenaarde graansorghum-
pakket gerugsteun deur ’n wêreldklas
navorsingsprogram, vorm die ruggraat van
graansorghum-produksie in Suid-Afrika.
Plaaslik-ontwikkelde basters word ook in
Suid-Amerika, Meksiko, Australië en die
res van Afrika aangeplant.
® Geregistreerde handelsmerke van PANNAR BPK, © 2016 PANNAR BPK
2016/GSS/A/17
Saam boer ons
vir die toekoms™
SORGHUM UIT AFRIKA
IS VEELSYDIG AS
VOEDSEL, VOER EN
BRANDSTOF.
UITSONDERLIKEPRODUKTE
ENGEWASPAKKETTE ULTRAMODERNE
NAVORSINGEN
ONTWIKKELINGSTEGNOLOGIE
GEWASVOORSORG OPTIMALISEER
PRODUKSIE
GEWASBESKERMINGS-
BESTUURSPRAKTYKE
to prices of a year ago. They traded at R4 629/ton (wheat nearest
contract month price) and R4 440/ton (December 16 contract month
price).
It is important to highlight that South Africa is a net importer of
wheat, and as a result, domestic wheat price movements are largely
influenced by the exchange rate as well as the international wheat
market events. At the time of writing, international wheat prices
(HRW no. 2) traded around US$194/ton, which is the lowest level in
six years.
Import perspective
South Africa’s wheat imports have been steadily increasing over
time. The increase in imports comes on the back of decreasing do-
mestic production as well as a steady increase in consumption. The
leading suppliers of wheat to South Africa are Black Sea, European
and North American countries.
In 2014/2015, South America imported 1,83 million tons and the
leading suppliers were Russia, Germany, Ukraine, Canada, Aus-
tralia, Poland, Lithuania, Argentina and the United States (US). In
2015/2016, South Africa’s wheat import estimate accounts for 64%
of domestic consumption, making the country more dependent on
imports for its wheat consumption (Graph 1).
International perspective
When analysing the domestic wheat market conditions, it is essential
to also reflect on the global wheat market, due to our dependence
on imports as well as the influence of the global wheat market on the
domestic market.
The 2015/2016 global wheat production is estimated at 732 million
tons, up by 1% from the previous season. This increase is mainly
due to large production in the European Union (EU), Australia,
Canada, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, US and Argentina (Graph 2). In
the same season, global ending-stocks are forecasted at 214 million
tons, which is 6% higher than the previous season.
2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016*
Opening stocks 489 000 489 000 594 000
Commercial
deliveries 1 817 000 1 701 000 1 422 000
Imports 1 668 000 1 832 000 2 000 000
Total supply 3 975 000 4 037 000 4 016 000
RSA consumption 3 218 000 3 151 000 3 140 000
Exports 268 000 292 000 287 000
Total demand 3 486 000 3 443 000 3 427 000
Carry-out 489 000 594 000 589 000
Surplus above
pipeline -196 000 -87 000 -93 000
TABLE 1: SUMMARY OF THE DOMESTIC WHEAT SUPPLY AND
DEMAND ESTIMATES.
Source: Grain SA
Data as at April 2016
*Projection
Grain SA/Sasol photo competition
– Antoinette Hawley 2012