41
January 2014
Domestic grain and
oilseeds market
Graph 2a
and
Graph 2b
show the final area
planted and crop production figures for
2013/2014. According to the Crop Estimates
Committee (CEC), the final calculated size
of the commercial maize crop is now at
11 690 000 tons, which is 0,28% less than
the final September crop estimate figure of
11 722 550 tons.
For white maize the revised crop size is now
at 5 545 000 tons which is 0,63% less than the
September estimate of 5 580 300 tons and for
yellow maize the revised crop size is slightly
higher at 6 145 000 tons, which is 0,04%
higher than the September estimate of
6 142 250 tons. Sorghum’s revised crop size
is now at 142 200 tons, which is 2,56% less
than the September estimate of 151 064 tons
(Graph 2a).
The revised crop size for sunflower seed is
now at 557 000 tons, which is 1,69% less
than the September estimate of 566 600 tons.
Soybean and groundnut crop sizes were also
adjusted downwards by 0,33% and 1,89%,
now being at 784 500 tons and 41 500 tons
respectively (Graph 2b). The reduction in the
white maize crop size is much evident due to
the unfavourable weather conditions in most
of the key producing areas. This may cause
upward price trends for white maize in the
long run.
Expectations of increases in the crushing
as well as tight stocks for the current season
is giving support to soybean prices, the
Safex price for the nearest contract month
(December 2013) is now trading at R6 660/ton,
which 23% higher than the price levels seen
last year at the same time.
Winter grains
The harvesting pace in some key wheat
producing areas in the Western Cape was
behind schedule as compared to the previous
year due to unfavourable weather conditions.
There is an expected reduction in wheat
production as well as some quality concerns
due to the unfavourable weather conditions
experienced.
Overall, there is still a large expected maize
crop in the world market, regardless of
unfavourable weather conditions in South
America and Southern African regions. The
rand is still expected to continue trading at low
levels.
Graph 2a and 2b: Final area planted and crop production figures for summer grains and oilseeds 2013 crops.
2a
2b
SA Grain/
Sasol Nitro photo competition
