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24
Oktober 2015
TRACY DAVIDS,
Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy
FOCUS
Animals
Special
Expanding livestock production
to support feed grain demand
over the next decade
M
eat consumption has globally expanded rapidly over the
past decade, particularly in developing regions where
rising income levels resulted in dynamic class mobility
and improved living standards. Consequently, dietary
intake has become increasingly diversified, as protein consumption
increases relative to traditional starches (OECD-FAO, 2015).
South Africa has been no exception – strong economic growth from
2000 to 2008, combined with increasing social grant payments,
created a significant demand stimulus and as the most affordable
source of animal protein, chicken consumption expanded more than
any other meat type, increasing by more than 80% since 2000. While
still positive over the past five years, meat consumption growth has
slowed following the global financial crisis.
Consumer income levels, combined with a continuously expanding
population, remain the core drivers of meat consumption over time.
Hence the medium term outlook for meat consumption presented by
the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) is largely depend-
ent on the turbulent macroeconomic environment in which South
Africa presently finds itself.
While the short term outlook for economic growth in South Africa
remains cautious, international institutions such as the International
Monetary Fund (IMF), Organisation for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD) and the World Bank project a recovery in the
longer term, with average annual growth exceeding 3% over the
coming decade.
Consequently, the outlook for total meat consumption remains
positive, with relative prices and consumer preferences driving the
choice between different meat types over time. Projected expan-
sion of 38% over the coming decade allows chicken to continue its
dominance of the meat complex, account-
ing for more than 65% of additional meat
consumed over the ten year period.
Beef consumption is projected to increase
by 28%, resulting in almost 200 000 tons of
additional beef consumed by 2024. Despite
its small share in the meat complex, pork
consumption continues to rise, increasing
by 33%, whereas lamb, as the most expan-
sive option, is projected to expand by 17%
by 2024 (
Graph 1
).
Graph 1 further illustrates that South Africa
remains a net importer of meat products
and in light of the projected growth in con-
sumption, the extent to which the additional
demand will be met from domestically pro-
duced products, will depend largely on the
competitiveness of South African producers
in the global context. Over the past decade,
domestic chicken production in particular
has not kept pace with the rate of demand
growth and the share of imported products
in domestic consumption has increased
from 10% in 2000, to 20% by 2014.
Graph 1: South African meat consumption, production and net imports: 2024 versus 2012 - 2014
base period.
“
The 2015 edition of the
BFAP Baseline presents a positive
outlook for livestock production in
South Africa over the next
decade, which will in turn stimulate
the demand for feed products.
“