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November 2017
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South African politics
in a holding pattern
H
istory will probably look back at
2017 and refer to it as the year in
which South Africa was caught
in a perfect political and economic
storm. Apart from the two stepchildren of
government policy, i.e. agriculture and min-
ing, very few sectors recorded economic
growth.
Due to record crops in maize, soybeans
and sunflower, as well as a modest upswing
in the global commodity cycle, it is safe
to say that these two sectors prevented
the country from more than a technical
recession.
Politically the fragmentation of the ruling
ANC into at least two factions caused politi-
cal paralysis in decision-making and confu-
sion in policy development. South Africa
became a victim of the worst of political
infighting, suffering very detrimental politi-
cal decisions, such as the cabinet reshuffle
in which Minister Pravin Gordhan lost his
job as Minister of Finance, with his brave
battle against state capture and corruption
recorded as his only sin.
The perfect storm was a storm of low
economic growth coupled with policy un-
certainty linked to a volatile currency and
factionalism in the governing party.
This new normal is often referred to as
a VUCA world. The VUCA concept fits
South Africa like a glove at the moment.
The first letter of this abbreviation stands
for
volatility
and our currency, the rand, is
a very good example with its almost unpre-
dictable swings. The second letter stands
for
uncertainty
and the ANC’s leadership
contestation and subsequent policy paraly-
sis fit nicely into this slot.
In VUCA the third letter represents
com-
plexity
and managing a country with an
unemployment rate of 27,7% and youth
unemployment reaching 50% illustrates
the complexity of policy formation and the
subsequent financing thereof. Land reform
also fits this bill.
The last letter in the VUCA word is
ambi-
guity
. Ambiguity is the degree to which
information, situations and events can be
interpreted in multiple ways. Ambiguity
increases doubt, slows decision-making,
and results in missed opportunities (and
threats).
In analysing the political economy of
South Africa towards the end of 2017, it is
useful to look at developments as a virtuous
cycle and a vicious cycle, because not eve-
rything is all bad or only good.
The virtuous cycle represents all those ac-
tions and decisions that bring South Afri-
cans closer to each other in forming a South
African political culture. In this ‘good cycle’
that searches for the middle; there are also
negative issues at work, but they are domi-
nated by the positives.
In the vicious cycle, however, the negatives
like crime, corruption and maladministration
dominate the good intentions of the change
efforts. These two cycles engage very dy-
namically and find expression in the reports
of the Auditor General, The Public Protector,
several court cases and policy decisions.
The recent report of the World Econom-
ic Forum (WEF) released at the end of
RELEVANT
THEO VENTER,
political and policy specialist,
NWU School of Business and Governance, North-West University
POLITICAL
analysis
Figure 1: The role of the ANC in politics.