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Desember 2015
12
ON GROUND LEVEL
GRAIN MARKET OVERVIEW
GRAIN SA ESTIMATE LOWER YIELDS AVERAGE YIELDS ABOVE AVERAGE
Updated
28 OCT
28 OCT
28 OCT
28 OCT
Marketing year
2015/2016*
2016/2017**
2016/2017**
2016/2017**
Area planted (x 1 000 ha)
1205
1129
1129
1129
Yield (t/ha)
4,35
3,50
4,50
5,30
CEC crop estimate ('000 ton)
5 239
3 952
5 081
5 984
Retentions
390
390
390
390
Minus: Early deliveries (current season)
367
367
367
367
Plus: Early deliveries (next season)
320
320
320
320
Available for commercial deliveries
4 802
3 514
4 643
5 547
Grain SA
Grain SA
Grain SA
Grain SA
('000 ton)
('000 ton)
('000 ton)
('000 ton)
Commercial supply
Opening stocks (1 May)
791
449
449
449
Commercial deliveries
4 802
3 514
4 643
5 547
Surplus (adjustment of the reconciliation)
Imports
700
2276
500
Total commercial supply
6 293
6 239
5 592
5 995
Commercial demand
Commercial consumption
Food
420
420
420
420
Feed
4 900
5 096
4 096
4 500
Total
5 320
5 516
4 516
4 920
Other consumption
Gristing
12
12
12
12
Withdrawn by producers
75
75
75
75
Released to end consumers
160
160
160
160
Net receipts
17
17
17
17
Deficit
Total
264
264
264
264
Total SA consumption (commercial)
5 584
5 780
4 780
5 184
Exports
Products
100
100
100
100
Whole maize
160
160
160
160
Total
260
260
260
260
Total commercial demand
5 844
6 040
5 040
5 444
Carry-out (30 April)
449
199
552
551
Pipeline requirements (1,5 months)
665
690
565
615
Surplus above pipeline
-216
-490
-12
-64
Carry-out as a % of SA consumption
8,04%
3,45%
11,55%
10,64%
Carry-out as a % of total commercial demand
7,68%
3,30%
10,96%
10,13%
TABLE 2: SOUTH AFRICA’S 2015/2016 YELLOW MAIZE SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES AND 2016/2017 SCENARIOS (
'
000 TONS).
*Grain SA estimate
**Grain SA scenarios
This would then lead to a total production of 5,68 million tons.
Exports would mainly be for the BNLS countries at a volume of
600 000 tons. There wouldn’t be a need for imports (see Table 1).
Yellow maize
In the event of normal rainfall, South Africa might achieve a national
average yield of 4,5 tons per hectare. The CEC’s intentions-to-plant
show that producers might plant 1,12 million hectares to yellow
maize.
This would then lead to total production of 5,08 million tons. The
exports would just be for the BNLS countries and South Africa
would still need to import about 500 000 tons to satisfy the domestic
market requirements (see Table 2).
Above yields scenario
In the event that South Africa receives sufficient rainfall at an ap-
propriate time in an intended area of 1,42 million hectares for white
maize and 1,12 million hectares for yellow maize, South Africa would
return to a net exporter status and total maize exports would pos-
sibly reach 1,7 million tons. This scenario would also lead to lower
maize prices for producers, especially white maize. Yellow maize
prices would to some extent benefit from global export demand
(see Table 3).