43 / 92
41
April 2015
MARKETING
YEAR
2004/
2005
2005/
2006
2006/
2007
2007/
2008
2008/
2009
2009/
2010
2010/
2011
2011/
2012
2012/
2013
2013/
2014
2014/
2015
2015/
2016
Month*
May
May
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
May
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Stock**
3 108 2 746 2 070 1 049 1 581 2 131 1 758
994 1 417
589 2 301 1 215
Month*
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Stock**
3 148 3 169 2 070 1 049 1 581 2 131 2 336
994 1 417
589 2 301 1 215
Imports
219
360
931 1 120
27
27
0
421
11
80
100
500
Stock level
Less the im-
ports
2 929 2 809 1 139
-71 1 554 2 104 2 336
573 1 406
509 2 201
715
Processed
quantity/month
607
622
638
669
718
722
738
745
745
779
806
811
Pipeline
required
45 days
911
45 days
933
45 days
957
45 days
1 004
45 days
1 077
45 days
1 082
45 days
1 107
45 days
1 118
45 days
1 117
45 days
1 169
45 days
1 209
45 days
1 217
Surplus/Short-
fall above pipe-
line required
2 018 1 876
182 -1075
477 1 022
651 -545
289 -660
992 -502
Actual days for
stock end of
April
155
152
54
47
66
89
95
40
57
23
86
45
* Month with lowest stock level.
** Stock level: The NAMC project the stock level at end of April 2015 at 2,3 million tons and at the end of April 2016 as 1,2 million tons
A note on imports: According to the World Watch Institute report published on 10 March 2015, many countries have turned to international markets to help meet their
domestic food demand. Imports of grain worldwide have increased fivefold between 1960 and 2013. However, importing food as a response to resource scarcity creates
dependence on global markets. It has two clear dangers. First, not all countries can be net food importers. At some point in time the demand for imported food exceeds the
capacity to supply it. Second, excessive dependence on imports leaves a country vulnerable to supply interruptions, whether for natural reasons or political manipulation.
The report concludes that an import strategy may be unavoidable for some nations, but it should be considered only reluctantly by countries that can meet their food needs
in more conventional ways. It is crucial to conserve agricultural resources wherever possible.
TABLE 1: THE PIPELINE REQUIREMENT FOR MAIZE (X ‘000 TONS).
MARKETING
YEAR
2004/
2005
2005/
2006
2006/
2007
2007/
2008
2008/
2009
2009/
2010
2010/
2011
2011/
2012
2012/
2013
2013/
2014
2014/
2015
2015/
2016
Production
9 482 11 450 6 618 7 125 12 700 12 050 12 815 10 360 12 121 11 811 14 250 9 665
Month*
Mar/
Apr
Mar/
Apr
Mar/
Apr
Mar/
Apr
Mar/
Apr
Mar/
Apr
Mar/
Apr
Mar/
Apr
Mar/
Apr
Mar/
Apr
Mar/
Apr
Mar/
Apr
Ending stock**
3 148 3 169 2 070 1 049 1 581 2 131 2 336
994 1 417
589 2 301 1 215
Imports
219
360
931 1 120
27
27
0
421
11
80
100
500
Early deliveries
March & April
212
91
550
668
352
322
172
615
842
497
580
489
Imports and
producer deliv-
eries
438
451 1 481 1 788
379
349
172 1 036
853
577
680
990
Stock levels
before imports
and producer
deliveries
2 717 2 718
589
-739 1 202 1 782 2 164
-92
564
12 1 704
225
Pipeline
required
45 days
911
45 days
933
45 days
957
45 days
1 004
45 days
1 077
45 days
1 082
45 days
1 107
45 days
1 118
45 days
1 117
45 days
1 169
45 days
1 209
45 days
1 217
Surplus/Short-
age above
pipeline require-
ment*
1 806 1 785 -368 -1 743
125
700 1 057 -1 210 -553 -1 157
495 -992
Processed in
March & April
1 214 1 244 1 276 1 338 1 436 1 444 1 476 1 490 1 490 1 558 1 612 1 622
TABLE 2: THE ANNUAL IMPORT REQUIREMENT.
* Indication of import need.
Source: SAGIS, 2015 and own calculations
TABLE 3: POPULATION GROWTH VERSUS MAIZE DEMAND.
Source: SAGIS, 2015 and Abstract of Agricultural Economics (2013)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Population growth X000 46 888 47 391 47 851 48 687 49 321 49 991 50 587 51 771
NA NA NA
Local demand
7 283 7 462 7 660 8 029 8 613 8 658 8 857 8 941 8 935 9 349 8 379