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RELEVANT
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March 2016
t
he question has always been just where does power lie in
South Africa. Is it in the Union Buildings or in the governing
party’s head offices in downtown Johannesburg? Perhaps
the best answer to that question is that in our most recent
history, a president in his first term holds power in both
houses, in his second that power gravitates more towards
he party headquarters. But by then, it’s not necessarily in the hands
of the president.
That was certainly the case with former state president Thabo
Mbeki and now seems to be the case of president Jacob Zuma, who
grows more and more isolated as each week passes. And this year
will mark yet another closing chapter to his presidency, the great
unravelling has begun; however dogged he is to keep control he
will likely see it slipping further away.
Up until December last year, it was for many a painfully slow un-
ravelling of a presidency, which in the mind of most has been one
of the low-lights of the governing party’s more than hundred year
history: Stories of the president driving his own succession, an
illustration perhaps of a man still very much in charge of his own des-
tiny. But the truth is that the end of Jacob Zuma’s tenure at the head
of the African National Congress has been in full swing for some time
and the turning point was last year’s ‘State of Nation’ address.
In front of an evening television audience and on a national broad-
caster that’s been carefully cultivated to protect his presidency,
Zuma’s power was challenged and embarrassingly so by Julius
Malema’s Economic Freedom Front. There were only two highlights
to that speech, the performance of Malema’s troops and the reac-
tion of the president, who just trivialised the matter in only a way
that he can. Admittedly, I was amused by his reaction.
But in the weeks and months that followed the speech that’s sup-
posed to set the political agenda for the year, which is normally
accompanied by the pageantry of our over-dressed ministers, the
stature of the presidential office began its rapid decline, both in the
Union Buildings and at party headquarters.
Everything from the continued calls for him to pay back some of
the state funds used in the building of his Nkandla compound, ser-
vice delivery protests across the country and the student protests
over fees have served to expose a presidency that has failed to in-
spire any confidence.
There have been no attempts to bolster falling confidence in the
faltering economy, and in fact, the ouster of finance minister,
Nhlanhla Nene, was the most reckless economic decision yet seen.
The fall-out from his sudden and irresponsible expulsion of Nene at
the back-end of last year was reflective a leader out of touch with
his party colleagues, and interestingly just came a few weeks after
he claimed that the party is more important than the country he
leads. Even those worryingly assured by that comment, must have
questioned just how much truth was there in that statement after
Nene’s sacking. A decision that was taken without the consent of
the top six leaders in his party.
Not known for backing down, the four-day turnaround that saw the
return of Pravin Gordhan to his old post was evidence of a man no
longer in the strongest of seats. After that, one wonders whether his
ex-wife Nkosasana Dlamini-Zuma, would welcome an endorsement
from him as the next president of the country, and one can only as-
sume reluctantly, the party.
What Penny Sparrow’s racist comments did at the start of this year
was a bit like manna from heaven, as the governing party has used
the social media uproar to deflect attention from the
faux pas
of
their president. Race is and will always be a convenient drum to play.
Of course, there was the badly informed ‘Zuma Must Fall’ marches
that also added to that drumbeat.
People within the party were expecting the party’s January 8
celebrations to set a rather uncomfortable stage for the president to
address his agitated party members. It proved a reprieve, and one
that the ANC has done well to use as they celebrated another year.
But news cycles move much faster in today’s South Africa. The
opening of parliament in February returns the country’s attention to
parliament, a stage where the president hasn’t looked comfortable
since his first term, a time when the red overalls of EFF weren’t a
feature. It also just happens in the weeks where the University of
Cape Town opens up for student registration. At last year’s medium-
term budget speech, students stormed parliament in their protests
over rising tertiary fees, once again overshadowing an event that
is just another feature on our political calendar.
The ingredients are all there for another marker interesting ‘State of
the Nation’ address, and who is to say, Nehawu – a Cosatu affiliated
union – won’t act to further disrupt parliament. Given the irritation
of the mother body, who is to say they won’t.
If last February marked the turning point in Zuma’s presidency,
this February will cement the idea that there is no one in the Union
Buildings and in Luthuli House. Not beneficial for an ANC heading
into what’s looking likely to be the most contested local govern-
ment elections.
Another year in South Africa politics, there’s never a dull moment in
this maturing democracy. Who is to say that there isn’t a concerted
and successful effort by those around president Zuma to reinvigor-
ate the man, a shot of energy to fight back to reclaim his legitimacy
both in the eyes of party stalwarts and the general public at large.
One feels, it will be a herculean task. And perhaps, impossible.
President Zuma has surprised many a time before.
The state we are in…
RON DERBY,
editor:
Business Times
POLITICAL
analysis