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Increased production in all the aforementioned countries is, to a
large extent, attributed to favourable weather conditions (Graph 1).
Consumption is also expected to remain firm, forecasted at
66,7 million tons in 2015/2016, a 7% year-on-year increase and the
highest consumption level in 19 years. Of this total consumption,
42% is for food, 47% for feed and 11% for industrial use. In all these
segments, feed consumption has shown significant growth from
the previous season, up by 7,1%.
Notable growth in this season’s consumption is on the back of
significant uptake in North and Central American appetite, from
9,5 million tons in the 2014/2015 season to 13,6 million tons in
2015/2016 season (Graph 1).
At the same time, the 2015/2016 global sorghum ending-stocks are
estimated at 4,8 million tons, an increase of 20% year-on-year and
the highest volume in ten years. The major driver behind this in-
crease has been a build-up in the US sorghum stocks to a 23 year
peak of 1,9 million tons (Graph 1).
Brief domestic perspective
Based on Grain SA’s database, dating back to 1988, this year’s
sorghum production will be at a record low. The crop is estimated at
93 400 tons, a 22% year-on-year decrease. This significant decrease
is on the back of the 31% drop in area planted to 48 500 hectares,
due to the ongoing drought. As a result, Grain SA estimates that
South Africa’s 2016/2017 sorghum imports could reach 60 000 tons,
the highest import volume since the 2002/2003 season.
At the same time, Grain SA forecasts a 13% year-on-year decrease in
domestic consumption to 167 100 tons, due largely to higher prices,
trading at levels of R3 650/ton, higher significantly by 51% year-on-
year (
Table 1
).
Moreover, Grain SA estimates a 61% year-on-year drop in South
Africa’s 2016/2017 sorghum exports to 10 000 tons, from 25 500 tons
in the 2015/2016 season. The 2016/2017 carry-over stocks are
forecasted at 30 000 tons, down by 48% from the previous season
(Table 1).
It is important to emphasise that the aforementioned estimates
are supported by those of the National Crop Estimates Committee,
and should any changes occur in their ensuing forecasts, Grain SA
will make the necessary amendments in the supply and demand
estimates.
Concluding remarks
Higher global supplies are likely to keep international sorghum
prices under pressure in the short to medium term while in the do-
mestic front the opposite is likely to persist. This season has been
clouded by drought. However, it is important that the sorghum in-
dustry continues to work on creating export markets as that could
lead to long term benefits in the coming seasons.
2014/2015
2015/2016*
2016/2017**
Opening stocks
50 100
121 800
57 400
Commercial deliveries
261 500
112 800
89 700
Imports
8 700
40 000
60 000
Total supply
320 300
275 000
207 000
RSA consumption
172 300
191 700
167 100
Exports
26 200
25 500
10 000
Total demand
198 500
217 200
177 100
Carry-over
121 800
57 400
30 000
Surplus above pipeline
103 000
36 000
11 000
TABLE 1: SUMMARY OF THE DOMESTIC SORGHUM SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES.
Source: Grain SA
Data as at March 2016
* Grain SA estimates
** Grain SA projections
April 2016
38
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