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RELEVANT
HAMISH MCBAIN,
retired executive, Tiger Brands
POLITICAL
analysis
South Africa:
This land is our land
I
n late 2017 South Africa came close to a ‘tipping point’ that
could well have resulted in an economic meltdown and wide-
spread unrest. The ANC is now deeply divided. On the one hand,
the Zuma aligned traditionalists, who seem to strongly believe
in the ‘big man’ concept so common in Africa. On the other, the
modernists who strongly support the Constitutional Democracy,
several of them former SACP members.
The election for ANC president at the December Conference was a
very close-run thing. Victory went to Mr Cyril Ramaphosa, the mod-
ernist faction candidate, by just 179 out of 4 701 votes cast. Half of
the elected National Executive Committee (NEC) remain strong tra-
ditional faction supporters, so the new leader must tread carefully.
Despite the urgent need for change, it is naïve to expect things to
happen quickly. Even positive moves mentioned at SONA, includ-
ing the reduction in the size of the Cabinet, productivity in the
SOEs and government departments, will be met with strong
opposition from within the party and the trade unions.
President Ramaphosa is also obliged to address the res-
olutions adopted at the ANC Conference, including the
new elephant in the room – land and expropria-
tion without compensation.
What is the real land issue?
This subject is fraught with intense emotion, and it means very dif-
ferent things to different people. Emotions are heightened by the
questionable statistics being bandied about; years of frustration
felt by many; and the clear failure of government’s land reform pro-
gramme.
The report back by the relevant commission at the National Elective
Conference led to frayed tempers and apparently a scuffle at the ple-
nary session. The adopted resolution warrants careful study.
Key statements in the resolution include: ‘Expropriation of land
without compensation should be among the key mechanisms
available to government to give effect to land
reform and redistribution’; ‘…we must en-
sure that we do not undermine further
investment in the economy, or dam-
age agricultural production or food
security. Furthermore, our interven-
tions must not harm other sectors
of the economy’; and ‘The ANC’s
approach to land reform must be
based on three separate elements:
Increased security of tenure, land
restitution and land redistribution’.
This is far from what the EFF is call-
ing for, but it also indicates that the
ANC itself does not really un-
derstand what is needed.
But what is the real land is-
sue? Is it about giving agri-
cultural land to people who
do not really want to farm? Will
the matter only be resolved by
Zimbabwe seizure of productive
farms and subsequent collapse of
the key agricultural sector? Why is Zulu
King, Goodwill Zwelethini, so up in arms
about expropriation without compensation?
Why South Africa will not be
like Zimbabwe
Mugabe and his ZANU-PF resorted to farm sei-
zures as a convenient way to regain lost votes
and eliminate a major source of opposition party
funding – the white producers. The ANC, conscious of
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