The state we are in...

March 2016

RON DERBY, editor: Business Times

The question has always been just where does power lie in South Africa. Is it in the Union Buildings or in the governing party’s head offices in downtown Johannesburg? Perhaps the best answer to that question is that in our most recent history, a president in his first term holds power in both houses, in his second that power gravitates more towards the party headquarters. But by then, it’s not necessarily in the hands of the president.

That was certainly the case with former state president Thabo Mbeki and now seems to be the case of president Jacob Zuma, who grows more and more isolated as each week passes. And this year will mark yet another closing chapter to his presidency, the great unravelling has begun; however dogged he is to keep control he will likely see it slipping further away.

Up until December last year, it was for many a painfully slow unravelling of a presidency, which in the mind of most has been one of the low-lights of the governing party’s more than hundred year history: Stories of the president driving his own succession, an illustration perhaps of a man still very much in charge of his own destiny. But the truth is that the end of Jacob Zuma’s tenure at the head of the African National Congress has been in full swing for some time and the turning point was last year’s ‘State of Nation’ address.

In front of an evening television audience and on a national broadcaster that’s been carefully cultivated to protect his presidency, Zuma’s power was challenged and embarrassingly so by Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Front. There were only two highlights to that speech, the performance of Malema’s troops and the reaction of the president, who just trivialised the matter in only a way that he can. Admittedly, I was amused by his reaction.

But in the weeks and months that followed the speech that’s supposed to set the political agenda for the year, which is normally accompanied by the pageantry of our over-dressed ministers, the stature of the presidential office began its rapid decline, both in the Union Buildings and at party headquarters.

Everything from the continued calls for him to pay back some of the state funds used in the building of his Nkandla compound, service delivery protests across the country and the student protests over fees have served to expose a presidency that has failed to inspire any confidence.

There have been no attempts to bolster falling confidence in the faltering economy, and in fact, the ouster of finance minister, Nhlanhla Nene, was the most reckless economic decision yet seen. The fall-out from his sudden and irresponsible expulsion of Nene at the back-end of last year was reflective a leader out of touch with his party colleagues, and interestingly just came a few weeks after he claimed that the party is more important than the country he leads. Even those worryingly assured by that comment, must have questioned just how much truth was there in that statement after Nene’s sacking. A decision that was taken without the consent of the top six leaders in his party.

Not known for backing down, the four-day turnaround that saw the return of Pravin Gordhan to his old post was evidence of a man no longer in the strongest of seats. After that, one wonders whether his ex-wife Nkosasana Dlamini-Zuma, would welcome an endorsement from him as the next president of the country, and one can only assume reluctantly, the party.

What Penny Sparrow’s racist comments did at the start of this year was a bit like manna from heaven, as the governing party has used the social media uproar to deflect attention from the faux pas of their president. Race is and will always be a convenient drum to play. Of course, there was the badly informed ‘Zuma Must Fall’ marches that also added to that drumbeat.

People within the party were expecting the party’s January 8 celebrations to set a rather uncomfortable stage for the president to address his agitated party members. It proved a reprieve, and one that the ANC has done well to use as they celebrated another year.

But news cycles move much faster in today’s South Africa. The opening of parliament in February returns the country’s attention to parliament, a stage where the president hasn’t looked comfortable since his first term, a time when the red overalls of EFF weren’t a feature. It also just happens in the weeks where the University of Cape Town opens up for student registration. At last year’s mediumterm budget speech, students stormed parliament in their protests over rising tertiary fees, once again overshadowing an event that is just another feature on our political calendar.

The ingredients are all there for another marker interesting ‘State of the Nation’ address, and who is to say, Nehawu – a Cosatu affiliated union – won’t act to further disrupt parliament. Given the irritation of the mother body, who is to say they won’t.

If last February marked the turning point in Zuma’s presidency, this February will cement the idea that there is no one in the Union Buildings and in Luthuli House. Not beneficial for an ANC heading into what’s looking likely to be the most contested local government elections.

Another year in South Africa politics, there’s never a dull moment in this maturing democracy. Who is to say that there isn’t a concerted and successful effort by those around president Zuma to reinvigorate the man, a shot of energy to fight back to reclaim his legitimacy both in the eyes of party stalwarts and the general public at large. One feels, it will be a herculean task. And perhaps, impossible. President Zuma has surprised many a time before.

Publication: March 2016

Section: Relevant