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t
he real problem with South African politics is our fascina-
tion with the state of the ruling party and which faction or
other is in the ascendancy at any point in time.
I guess it’s understandable to a degree, given our despera-
tion for a sign for some positive change, any change that
would signal we’ve reached our lowest ebb. The fact that every
day, there are still the same men at the helm in both Luthuli House
and the Union Buildings confirms our biggest fear that the decay
continues, unabated.
The cult of personality, which is what the older guard in the ANC
warned its own party members to avoid all those years ago, has
taken root in the party and in extension in all of us. What this de-
tracts from is the actual state of South Africa Inc.
The upgrades to the president’s Nkandla homestead, the likely
outcome of local government elections next year, which is expected
to influence those of the ANC’s 2017 polls, have been the main
considerations for everyone across the political spectrum. Even the
Democratic Alliance, with its new leader, has been enthralled by
the theatre of it all.
But whilst they, and I guess by extension, us the citizenry, naval gaze,
the gates to Rome are burning.
We are in the throes of the second round of effects of the global
economic slowdown that has been with us for close to a decade.
The story of the first round was dominated by the woes of the West
and in particular the old continent of Europe.
Emerging markets were for the most part shielded from the slow-
down by China’s insatiable appetite for raw materials. Congregat-
ing around this strength rather opportunistically, were political
leaders from Brazil, Russia, South Africa and India, forming the
BRICS alliance.
But it was really inconceivable that the Chinese economy, even
with its billion plus populace, would continue to grow in double
digit territory. Most of its produce, from shoes, mobile phones to
whatever else one can imagine, were destined for markets in the
developed world, the very developed world that is nowhere near
the growth rates seen before the 2008 crisis, and won’t be for years
to come.
What China did was to soften the impact of a global economic
slowdown for emerging market economies, especially those en-
dowed with a rich reserve of resources such as us. That support
is no more, plunging commodity prices is the clearest evidence of
the sea-change.
The mining industry, which has long been on a drive to reduce
its numbers, is now being more vocal about its plans. Everyone
including Anglo is on cash conservation mode, looking to reduce
output as demand fails to ignite. There’s been a knock-on effect
on other industries such as steel. Even parastatals such as SAA,
which is currently been overseen by Treasury, is looking at cutting
staff numbers. Since April alone, some 23 000 South Africans
received notice that they may lose their jobs.
This is the delayed effects of the nearly decade long global economic
slowdown that I referred to earlier.
In the first leg, we lost about a million jobs, which were offset by
increased hiring by the state. This time around, Treasury doesn’t
have the fiscal space to go on a hiring spree.
Politicians are now going to have to zoom in on the structural im-
pediments to higher growth in South Africa, which would alleviate
the growing unemployment crisis. No global alliance can detract
from the fact that we need a really sober conversation.
And there’s no need to set up an inquiry into these fault-lines,
there’s been so many national plans that have highlighted the
The jobs crisis...
RON DERBY,
editor:
Business Times
POLITICAL
analysis
RELEVANT
“
We are in the throes
of the second round
of effects of the global
economic slowdown
that has been with us
for close to a decade.
“
September 2015
104