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ℓ
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uppemarketingA14992
twelve Pacific Rim countries, namely Australia, Brunei, Canada,
Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, USA
and Vietnam.
The TPP members represent roughly 25,6% of global trade, valued
at US$12 trillion, as well as a considerable population of 806 million
people (11,2% of global population).
With a grains perspective, this agreement covers wheat, barley,
rice, maize and soybean. However, some of these have different
quota levels, with the exception of soybeans which is free of du-
ties. Hayashi’s presentation leaned on assessing these agreements
from an importer perspective, particularly considering consumer re-
sponse and the effects of the trade agreement on grain trade.
Concluding remarks
During discussions with analysts and experts, a growing concern
was voiced about the scarcity of white maize supply in the glob-
al market — with the current drought in Southern Africa in mind.
Indications seemed to be pointing to Mexico and the USA for
temporary relief, as other grain producing countries are mainly fo-
cussed on yellow maize production.
However, on a positive note, the global grain market will be well-
supplied in the 2016/2017 season, with global grain production es-
timated at 2 billion tons – up by 1% from the previous season. In
addition, the 2016/2017 global grain stocks are forecast at 474 million
tons, up by 1,3% from the previous season.
Global consumption is also expected to maintain an upward trend,
largely supported by an increasing demand for wheat particularly in
North Africa and the Asian markets.
In essence, global grain prices are expected to move sideways in the
short to medium term, with lingering uncertainty around the possi-
bility of La Niña occurrence and the effects thereof on the Northern
Hemisphere.
All presentations from the conference are available online at the
Agbiz website (
www.agbiz.co.za )and SAGIS website (
www.sagis.org.za
).
Grain SA/Sasol photo competition
– Stella Pieterse 2015