SA Graan Januarie 2017

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RELEVANT
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Smallholders will still struggle to get a foothold with limited sup-
port as the state will focus on the needs of urban areas, with food
security in rural areas at risk. Expectant land claimants could feel
that land reform has given them a raw deal.
Scenario 3: Occupation and confiscation
The third story focuses on taking back the land. It is about the
illegal occupation of land with deepening hardship and hunger driv-
ing a countrywide campaign of land invasion and occupation. This
could lead to the amendment of the constitution to allow confisca-
tion without compensation. The winners will be those who occupy
the land and have their occupation legitimised, with the immediate
losers being those whose land is occupied.
By 2030, 60% of commercial farmland could be in the hands of
black South Africans. The new government could comprise former
opposition groups with competing views on land agriculture with
the country lacking a clear constitutional framework for dealing
with land. Many of the urban impoverished will still go hungry with
an uncertain future.
Scenario 4: Hard bargaining and
compromise
The final story is one about sharing the land. In this scenario the
ruling party takes a more inclusive approach to land reform and
uses incentives to draw private sector players, institutions and civil
society organisations into resolving land reform challenges. Hard
bargaining and compromise will unclutter the policy agenda. Large
and small farmers, land reform beneficiaries, civil society organi-
sations and financing partners will be enabled by a government
that seeks a collaborative approach to land reform with a primary
emphasis on the poor. Practical strategies for land redistribution
will cause the gap between small-scale and commercial farming
to narrow.
In this scenario land reform will, by 2030, become a shared respon-
sibility among a wide range of participants supported by an ena-
bling state committed to the underprivileged. There will be a greater
diversity of land holding arrangements and land uses. Although
food security will remain fragile, there should be a rising optimism
amongst South Africans.
In conclusion, these are not predictions of what will happen or
recommendations about what should happen; they are only plausi-
ble possibilities of what could happen.
Sources
A fresh approach to land reform