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Outlook for the
coming production season
s
outh Africa is generally a net exporter of maize in a nor-
mal year. This means that under normal conditions
South Africa is a surplus producer of maize and therefore
exports more maize than it imports. During the 2014/2015
marketi g season, South Africa imported a total of
65 000 tons of maize. This figure only refers to yellow
maize as no white maize imports were needed.
During that same year, a total of 2,15 million tons were exported.
The situation did, however, start to change with the effect of the
drought experienced in 2015/2016 marketing year, which turned
out to be the worst drought in 104 years. This placed a massive
burden on the South African maize production. South Africa had
become a net importer of maize in the 2015/2016 marketing season
for the first time since 2008.
The effect of the drought had spilled over to the 2016/2017 market-
ing season and the total area planted for the 2016/2017 market-
ing season was 1 946 750 million ha. According to the final Crop
Estimates Committee (CEC) production estimate for the season,
the white maize production for the season is 3,25 million tons on
1,015 million ha – which gives an average yield of 3,21 t/ha.
The estimated yellow maize plantings for the 2016/2017 market-
ing season were 932 000 ha, with an estimated crop of
4,283 million tons and an average yield of 4,60 t/ha. According to
the Grain SA supply and demand estimates, the estimated imports
for both white and yellow maize for the 2016/2017 marketing season
are 950 000 and 2,05 million tons respectively, while exports are
estimated at 565 000 tons and 350 000 tons respectively.
Graph 1
provides an overview of historical maize plantings, which
includes white maize and yellow maize over the past ten years,
indicating the impact of the drought from 2015 to 2016. The five
year average area of total maize planted, without considering
the 2016 season since this was an outlier due to the drought, is
2,639 million ha.
New season expectations
In the National Crop Estimates Committee’s first intention to plant
report the estimated 2,463 million ha of total maize to be planted
for the 2017/2018 marketing season shows an increase of ± 26,5%
from the previous season.
This includes the 43,4% increase in the white maize area as well as
the 8,2% increase in the yellow maize area estimated to be planted
for the upcoming season. The estimated plantings for the season
are, however, still lower than the five year average and only shows a
slight increase from the previous season (Graph 1).
Given the above-mentioned intentions to plant maize for the com-
ing season, it is important to consider the possible outcomes which
can be expected given different scenarios during the season. The
supply and demand estimates are a good indication of possible
outcomes for the 2017/2018 marketing season.
Supply and demand scenarios
The supply and demand scenarios are compiled by determining
the average yield for both white and yellow maize over the past
ten years without considering the highest and lowest yields during
this period – since they are seen as outliers.
The average yields realised over this period for white maize and
yellow maize were 4 t/ha and 4,9 t/ha respectively. These were
then used to determine the yields for an average season. The low-
er and higher yields that were used for this assumption were the
averages of the yields below and above the average that remained in
the equation as mentioned above.
Given a situation where there are possible lower than average
yields for both white (3,4 t/ha) and yellow maize (4,6 t/ha) a total
South African crop of 9,584 million tons is possible. This will, how-
ever, not be sufficient to meet the South African demand and in
such a case South Africa is likely to remain a net importer of maize
during 2017/2018 – with most of the imports being yellow maize.
In a normal year with average yields the total local production may
reach up to 10,759 million tons. This could leave South Africa with a
surplus of white maize – given the assumption that the white maize
consumption remains relatively constant, while the yellow maize
markets will still be dependent on imports for the season.
If high yield scenarios are likely for the coming season, the pos-
sibility could arise that South Africa might have a total crop of
11,845 million tons. This can result in a good break-even and even
a small surplus situation. South Africa might be a net exporter of
maize as no imports of white and yellow maize are likely to be need-
ed to meet local demand.
During times of a surplus production of maize, more white maize is
likely to be substituted in animal feeds rather than exported, due to
the limited white maize consuming markets. The surplus of maize
might then cause the prices to trade close to export parity levels
(
Table 1
).
LUAN VAN DER WALT,
economist: Grain SA and
MICHELLE MOKONE,
economist: Grain SA
GRAIN MARKET
overview
– 11 November 2016
ON FARM LEVEL
Desember 2016
18