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Produk-inligting
April 2018
22
T
he term ‘climate resilience’ refers
to ‘the ability or capacity of a com-
munity to bounce back or weather
the storm through resisting, absorb-
ing or accommodating the shock of an ex-
treme climate event and then recovering
and reorganising afterwards’.
In 2007 Prof Guy Midgley already wrote,
as a co-lead author of an IPCC report, that
‘The resilience of many ecosystems is likely
to be exceeded this century by an unprec-
edented combination of climate change,
associated disturbances (e.g. flooding,
drought, wildfires, insects, ocean acidifica-
tion) and other global change drivers (e.g.
land use change, pollution and overexploi-
tation of resources)’.
In 2018, there is growing evidence that
this projection has been borne out by ob-
servations in several ecosystems – for ex-
ample, the coral reefs of the tropics have
seen ecological collapse over vast areas,
the increasing mortality of forest trees has
been observed around the world, and the
frequency of severe wildfires has been in-
creasing in many ecosystems. How can we
increase the resilience of natural and man-
aged ecosystems to help us cope?
Find the silver lining
Surprisingly, even now it’s not uncommon
to hear people scoff about the ‘theory of
climate change’ saying they believe ‘it’s just
another weather cycle’ and not permanent
change – and such talk is just scaremonger-
ing. Prof Midgley doesn’t even go there – in
his eyes, and in the data produced by thou-
sands of scientists and ‘citizen scientists’
worldwide, the theory is incontrovertible.
Debating the issue is now wasting valuable
time to address the impacts.
After a lifetime of work in this arena, climate
change ‘is no longer a myth’. He says it is a
serious threat – ‘a game changer’. In spite
of this, a message of hope underpinned his
address to Congress. In that headspace it
becomes possible to find ‘the silver lining’,
which is where opportunity lies.
Reality check
At the World Economic Forum in Davos
where world business leaders examine the
medium to long term threats to world busi-
ness, the latest assessment of events, with
the highest impact on business – and the
highest likelihood of occurring, are con-
sidered to be extreme weather events and
natural disasters.
It places the spotlight on ‘hotspots’: Water
crises, failure at climate change mitigation
and adaptation and food crises. Whether
climate change is real or not…is no longer a
debate amongst the business leaders of the
world. This has become an issue of profits,
economic activity, human well-being and
risk management.
The solution space
How has the climate been
changing?
Prof Midgley says that scientific data tell
a clear story of increased global tempera-
tures driven by rising concentrations of
greenhouse gases (GHG’s) in the air around
us: Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous
oxide.
These are radiatively active and once re-
leased into the atmosphere cause warming.
Prof Midgley noted that we need CO
2
– with-
out any CO
2
the global average temperature
would be -15°C and the planet would be
frozen. Unfortunately, additional GHG’s are
now being added and these can be largely
attributed to anthropogenic (human) activi-
ties in the industrial era.
Since the late 1900s emissions have accel-
erated with population growth, agricultural
expansion, dependence on fossil fuels, de-
forestation and land use changes. The new
Sustainable Development Goals are a major
international attempt to achieve a transition
from these trends to a sustainable and de-
veloping environment. It is within these sce-
narios that our potential solutions lie.
What is likely to happen?
We have choices to make with regard to
how much carbon we emit and how much
we warm the world. ‘The future of our plan-
et is in our hands – including how efficiently
you can remain in farming.’ Prof Midgley
acknowledged the potential futures are
diverse and depend strongly on na-
tional and international policies.
Under business as usual global
development, we are set to
warm the planet by 5°C or
more by the end of this
century. Under scenarios
that rapidly roll out re-
newable energy solu-
tions and increase the
capacity of the earth
to absorb CO
2
back
into ecosystems, we
might avoid 2°C of
warming. Political will and global to local
action will make the difference.
When might these things
happen?
At present we are on a high emissions tra-
jectory to warm the world by between 3,2°C
to 5,4°C which means 6°C to 10°C across
sub-Saharan Africa towards the end of the
century, i.e. desert conditions. We have to
get onto the low emissions pathway as far
as possible. The longer we delay, the harder
it becomes to achieve this.
Even under the best-case scenario, technol-
ogy which draws carbon dioxide out of the
atmosphere is needed and this is one im-
portant place where there is opportunity for
agriculture. Carbon can be naturally seques-
tered (stored) in soils and vegetation, but at
present much escapes into the atmosphere
due to inefficient management approaches.
We must find ways to lock in more carbon
and reduce emissions into the atmosphere.
Prof Midgley pointed out that although
the warming pattern in South Africa has
been positive over the last 50 years at 1°C
to 1,5°C warming, we have a regional
advantage because our climate is semi-
continental. Being buffered by the oceans
protects us against the worst effects of glo-
bal warming for some decades. This offers
us yet another opportunity, as the rest of
the world continues to warm over the next
few decades, and in the continental climates
of the northern hemisphere damaging ex-
treme events increase in frequency.
What does this mean for
grain production?
Researchers have found a
1°C temperature increase
boosts maize production
in well-watered situations
for sub-Saharan Africa
– but only up until a
REVIEW
Congress
Special
JENNY MATHEWS,
SA Graan/Grain
contributor
Prof Guy Midgley