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Due to uncertain weather conditions it is extremely difficult to make accurate production projections. The distribution of rainfall in general was unfavourable and the underground moisture at the beginning of the season was insufficient in certain important production areas. The first production forecast for summercrops is very dependant on weather conditions up and to March/April White maize The crop forecast for white maize amounts to 4.17 ton/ ha compared to last year’s final crop of 4.12 ton/ha.The Northwest Province’s forecasted yields are down from last year’s due to the current drought conditions. If these drought conditions continue in this area, the expected yields may even be lower. Early in the season one could expect a margin of error on the forecast of about 8%. Grain SA is of the opinion that the forecast for white maize may be adjusted downwards to the lower end of this range. The ability of the harvest to recover is decreasing every day now and the possibility of 3.84 ton/ha may be more realistic. Follow-up rain is therefore critical. At the yield of 3.84 ton/ha it means that the available white maize for exports will be 1.2 million tons. Compared to the export ratio of the last two years to the BLNS-countries as well as Mexico, it implicates that the supply and demand for white maize might break even. It is imperative that the market knows how much of the local harverst has already been sold. For this very reason the Supply and Demand Committee was formed. Grain SA appeals to Goverment for more transparent and availalbe information in the market, as this contributes towards food security. Yellow Maize Grain SA is of the opinion that it is quitelikely that the yellow maize production forecast may realize. To maintain the current production potential follow-up rain is essential. |