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I
N THIS ARTICLE WE WILL GIVE AN OVERVIEW OF THE
2020/2021 MARKETING SEASON, IN TERMS OF SUPPLY
AND DEMAND AS WELL AS PRICES.
INTERNATIONAL MARKET TRENDS
Global maize prospects for the new season are looking
good, with production expected to exceed the previous
season by 2,8%. However, there are less than favourable
weather conditions in certain parts of the major produc-
ing countries delaying harvesting as well as sowing, this
coupled with strong demand, especially from China. The
impact is reflected by increasing prices for major produc-
ers like USA, Ukraine, Brazil and Argentina; as a result,
we have seen price increases also in South Africa, due
to the influence that production conditions and the ex-
change rate of those countries have on our local market.
LOCAL MARKET TRENDS
According to recent SAGIS figures, producer deliver-
ies for maize at the end of October totalled 13,8 million
tons, 7,9 million tons of white maize and 5,9 million
tons of yellow maize, which amounts to about 93,6%
of the estimated production by the Crop Estimates
Committee (CEC) (
Table 1
).
It is no surprise that we have no imports of maize,
given the large crop for the season. Projected closing
stocks for the end of the season (30 April 2021) are
estimated at 1,887 million tons. If we process about
939 083 tons per month on average, this means we
will have enough stock levels to last us two months
or 61 days at the end of the season, before new
deliveries arrive or we import.
Domestic demand for maize remains good. About
5,6 million tons of maize, was processed for human
consumption, animal feed and gristing, this is a 4,5%
increase compared to the same period last year.
Looking at
Table 2
, white maize processing increased
by 25%, with animal feed taking up most of the white
maize. There has been an overall decline of 14% for
Maize market prospects
for next season
Ikageng Maluleke, Agricultural
Economist, Grain SA. Send an
email to Ikageng@grainsa.co.za
1
2019/2020
2020/2021
Supply
Tons
Tons
Opening stocks
2 663 086
1 000 601
Producer deliveries
10 887 053
14 750 220
Imports
509 684
0
Early deliveries
15 057
-1 241
Surpluses
22 336
28 000
Total supply
14 082 159
15 777 580
Demand
Local demand
11 106 412
11 269 000
Exports
1 745 000
2 560 000
• Products
360 812
300 000
• Whole maize
1 448 761
2 150 000
Total demand
13 081 558
13 890 500
Ending stocks (30 April)
1 00 601
1 887 080
Local supply and demand.
1
Weekly local exports of white and yellow maize.
Source: SAGIS
The forecast for the new season
in terms of production planning
is looking favourable, therefore,
it is expected that the local
production may be good in the
2020/2021 season.
MADE POSSIBLE BY
THE MAIZE TRUST
10